THE biggest storm since Ciarán is due to hit the Island this evening, with winds of up to 90mph forecast.
The strongest winds of Storm Goretti are forecast to arrive from 6pm through until the early hours of Friday morning.
Jersey Met said it was continuing to monitor Storm Goretti and how it will affect the Channel Islands.
It added that weather warnings will be issued, along with updates to the local forecast regularly, and as required.
It is advising Islanders to stay at home when the wind is at its peak between 8 pm and the early hours of tomorrow and to stay away from the coast.
Jersey Airport has already confirmed that it will be closing early at 6pm on Thursday evening and reopen on Friday morning.
The peak of the storm coincides with a 10.04 pm high tide.
Although it is only a 9.7m high tide this evening, the Met Office is predicting a 1m to 1.2m storm surge, taking the high tide up to a potential 10.9m.
Although the storm is not forecast to bring snow – that is expected further north across many parts of the UK – its westerly trajectory does mean that the Channel Islands are likely to experience the strongest winds in the British Isles, along with western Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly.
Northern France will also experience very strong winds.
Therefore, Islanders are advised to stay away from the coast, especially openings such as slipways and steps.
The sea is expected to be very rough at the storm’s peak, with 15-feet waves forecast, meaning that ferries are likely to be cancelled, which may disrupt some food supplies, although this is not expected to last long.
Covering 6pm this evening to 6am tomorrow, the Island’s latest shipping forecast predicts “southwest gale 8 to storm 10, locally violent storm 11 at first, veering northwest gale 8 to severe gale 9 by midnight, decreasing 6 to 7 by dawn”.
Force 11 equates to winds of 56-63 knots, or 64-72mph.
Meanwhile, the sea state is predicted to be rather rough to rough, soon increasing very rough to high, decreasing rough later” and the weather will be “rain and drizzle, perhaps occasionally heavy with mist, clearing to squally showers with hail overnight.”
The visibility is expected to be “good, occasionally moderate to poor”.
However, by just after 4.30pm, Jersey Met’s official forecast on the government website stated that winds of up to 90mph were now expected overnight.
The storm may also cause disruption for air passengers, with UK and European airports expected to experience snow and icy conditions.
The strong winds of Storm Goretti, which has been named by Météo-France, has prompted the UK Met Office to issue an ‘amber’ warning for Cornwall and Scillies. The heaviest snowfall is most likely to be across Wales and parts of the Midlands.
Heavy rain is also expected in other parts of the UK.
Storm Goretti’s influence is forecast to wane on Friday as the weather system moves east.
The developing low has been tracked by weather watchers for the past week. Initially it was thought that it could bring snow to the Island, but the trajectory of the system then shifted.
It is possible that the low will deepen by more than 24 millibars in 24 hours – reaching the unofficially defined threshold for what constitutes a ‘weather bomb’.
In this meteorological phenomenon, which is officially known as ‘explosive cyclogenesis’, differences in pressure between altitudes can cause air to be sucked into the spinning depression, causing it to spin even faster.
Jersey Met said it continued to work with government colleagues to prepare for the storm.
A spokesman for Ports of Jersey said: “Our teams across the Airport and harbours are actively preparing for the arrival of Storm Goretti and working closely with Jersey Met and our all our business partners.
“We ask all passengers and users to exercise caution and stay safe, and we will provide more information tomorrow via social media as the situation develops.”
Storm Ciaran, which hit the Island in November 2023, was the strongest on record in Jersey. Then, the Airport recorded a gust of 81 knots, or 93 mph, the highest gust there since the ‘Great Storm’ of October 1987 when it recorded 85 knots, 98mph.
However, much of Storm Ciaran’s damage in Jersey was caused by a tornado which hit the east of the Island, cutting a path from Grève d’Azette to Fliquet.
Thousands of trees around the Island – including up to 400 trees along the Railway Walk – were damaged or toppled. Since then, more than 10,000 trees have been planted by Jersey Trees for Life to replace those lost.
Looking ahead to the possible effect of Storm Goretti, the organisation’s chief executive officer, Alex Morel, said Islanders should consider clearing ivy from their trees.
“Most trees naturally shed their leaves at this time of year, but ivy can act like a sail and add weight, which can bring a tree down in strong winds,” she said, adding that staking young trees in exposed locations would also be a “big help”.
