Residential laws and population

The latest reduction, therefore, was probably to be expected. In addition, the target of a further cut to ten years by the end of 2010 is quite possibly likely to be met.

So far so good, especially for those who are benefiting from the relaxation of the rules by being helped on their way towards finding better accommodation.

There are, however, questions to be asked about the policy and how exactly it relates to the present economic circumstances. It is also legitimate to ask how this latest reduction stands in the context of the more general issue of population control – a subject which will be debated by the States when they deal with the Strategic Plan.

It seems unlikely that the reduction to 11 years will do anything to improve the state of the economy. Indeed, it is plausible that it will have an adverse effect. If increased demand tends to drive up the price of homes, any spur to the market could be negated by lack of affordability. If this were the net result, there would be few spin-off benefits for builders, allied trades, furniture shops, carpet retailers or the economic life of the Island as a whole.

Deputy Jeremy Maçon could well have analysed the situation correctly when he said that the latest move will do nothing to improve the quality of housing. He might have added that although it will produce theoretical demand, it will do little or nothing to change the picture of availability.

Meanwhile, can it be right for the States to continue tinkering with residential qualifications when the big picture must still be in doubt in advance of this summer’s consideration of the Strategic Plan?

Housing Minister Terry Le Main has said that the 11-year decision will not increase the population by a single person, but that must be a short-term assessment. He has, in fact, acknowledged that there is uncertainty in the general principle through his reassurance to fellow States Members that the further move to ten years will not be made unless it has been determined that there would be no adverse effect on the housing market or on those seeking accommodation.