JERSEY may need to rethink policies that have historically kept people out of the Island if it is to cope with a rapidly ageing population, the Treasury Minister has warned.
Deputy Elaine Millar said the government will need to look carefully at how it attracts and retains younger workers after new demographic projections reflected growing pressure on the working-age population, measured through the ‘dependency ratio’.
The ratio refers to the number of people aged under 16 and over 65 relative to the working-age population, with a higher figure suggesting greater strain on public resources, services and pension systems.
It contributed to some of the more striking projections within a recent set of Statistics Jersey reports analysing how the size and structure of the Island’s resident population could change over the next five decades.
Based on a positive net annual migration of 400 people – which is roughly in line with recent trends – alongside mid-range fertility and life expectancy assumptions, Jersey’s dependency ratio it is projected to rise to 60.9 “dependently aged” people per 100 people of working age by 2040, further increasing to 77.3 by 2080.
Treasury Minister Elaine Millar said: “We really need to think much more carefully, generally as government – and this will be a task for the next government – as to how we attract younger people here to work and also how we retain our own youth population.”
She explained that this would include consideration of the careers available in the Island as well as affordability of housing.
Deputy Millar noted a “huge piece of work” conducted on the competitiveness of the financial services sector, being spearheaded by External Relations Minister Ian Gorst and due to be released next week.
“That piece of work is really important, because it is our biggest industry,” she continued. “So [it’s about], how do we sustain and help that industry grow and compete in an increasingly competitive world?”
Deputy Millar also suggested the Island could review its control of housing and work policies with a view to a “possible shift in thinking”.
“We need to look across the board at what we need for Jersey for the future and look at whether our structures, which for a long time have been keeping people out, are still working.”
Economic Development Minister Kirsten Morel said that, since 2023, the government has worked to address the challenge of the Island’s ageing demographic through the Future Economy Programme.
“The challenge is that in less than 20 years, our population of over-65s will have grown by 50% while the number of those of working age (16-64) will have decreased by 10%,” he continued.
“If we do nothing, living standards will fall, and we will be faced with some tough choices.”
But Deputy Morel stated that the Future Economy Programme seeks to address this in multiple ways, including “finding alternative sources of income which will reduce the pressure on income tax” as well as “right-sizing the public sector” and “helping the private sector to become more productive”.
