JERSEY’s working age population could fall by more than 5,000 people by 2050 depending on future migration levels, according to newly-released projections.
The most recent data published by Statistics Jersey includes analysis of the projected size and structure of Jersey’s resident population over the next five decades, adjusted for different scenarios.
One of the projections breaks down a net annual migration scenario in which 400 more people move to Jersey than leave each year – which is roughly in line with recent trends – alongside mid-range fertility and mortality assumptions.
In this scenario, the population is forecast to rise slightly to more than 105,000 Islanders and remain “fairly stable” until 2050, before falling to 96,460 in 2080.
Statistics Jersey notes that: “While the overall population would stay relatively stable in this scenario, the number of working age people would fall throughout the entire projection period, from 68,530 in 2024, to 62,770 by 2050, and finally down to 54,410 in 2080.”
Based on similar assumptions, positive net migration of around 700 people per year would be needed to maintain a stable-sized workforce in the long term.
The report also highlights Jersey’s ageing population.
For all net migration scenarios projected the number of Islanders aged under 16 will continue to decrease, while the number of people aged 65 and over could grow to around 28,000 by 2040.
The latter statistic marks an increase of 36% from 20,600 at the end of 2024.
Additionally, the number of people aged 80 years and over is projected to be more than 11,000 by 2050, almost double the number estimated at the end of 2024 (5,770).
Statistics Jersey also looked at the Island’s total fertility rate, which is an estimate of the number of children born to a woman in her lifetime – based on the current rates of age-specific fertility in the population.
The mid-range fertility assumption chosen for the population projections assumes the total fertility rate “will continue the observed downward trend in the short term” before stabilising around a figure of 1.01 by 2034.
By comparison, the replacement fertility rate, which indicates the level needed for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next, is around two children per woman.
The report’s publication comes just weeks after the most recent annual statement from the Office of the Superintendent Registrar showed that just under 700 babies were born in Jersey in 2025.
This is the lowest number of births recorded since 1945 and also marks a 2.5% decrease in comparison to 2024 and a 30% drop in comparison to 2015.
However, some of the more striking projections relate to the Island’s dependency ratio, which is the number of “dependent” (non-working-age) people per 100 working-age people.
The dependency ratio is a demographic measure which compares the number of working age people – those aged between 15 and 64 – to those aged under 15 and 65+. It acts as a measure of the potential economic impact on the working population to support children and the elderly, with higher ratios suggesting greater strain on public resources, services and pension systems.
According to the figures, it is anticipated to increase for all projected net migration scenarios, potentially reaching as high as 94.1 by 2080 in the case of net nil migration.
With a positive net annual migration of 400 people, combined with mid-range fertility and life expectancy assumptions, it is projected to rise to 60.9 dependently aged people per 100 people of working age by 2040, further increasing to 77.3 by 2080.
The projections come less than a year since the Chamber of Commerce warned that Jersey is becoming “a smaller, older island” and that this would have “implications for every sector of our community and economy”.
The Statistics Jersey report notes: “The dependency ratio is initially larger for the higher fertility assumption until 2070. This is because more births result in a larger population aged under 16.
“This changes after 2070, when enough projected births have reached working age to offset the larger size of the population aged under 16. The opposite is true for the lower fertility assumption.”
