WE have been told about Jersey’s aging population for years – the fact that, on current trends, less than 60% of the Island’s population will be of working age by 2040. In 2021, it was 65.6%. In essence, more people are retiring than entering the workforce.
The population aged 65 and above has grown by 12% in the last 5 years, against an overall population increase of 1%.
But – once again following the trend in the western world – another dynamic is increasingly coming into play in Jersey: we are having fewer children.
Boffins at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development have worked out that a ‘total fertility rate’ of 2.1 children per woman is required to ensure a broadly stable population, assuming no net migration and unchanged mortality rates.
Jersey’s current rate is 1.20 births per woman. Many of the reasons for this are positive: birth rates fall in countries where women have high education attainment so can forge careers themselves.
Also, access to contraception and sex education has helped families take control. Less positive is the fact that childcare can be a significant cost.
In 2021 almost two-thirds (63%) of women in Jersey aged 16 and over were working, or at least looking for work.
Environmentally, fewer people on this planet is usually regarded as a good thing – and esteemed voices like Sir David Attenborough have advocated for smaller families.
There is also an argument, made by people such as Yuval Noah Harari, that technology such as AI will reduce the number of people required in the workforce, although that is hotly debated.
The trouble is that the west has built an economic system that requires taxes – currently only based on human endeavour – generated by the working population to pay for state pensions and public services such as hospitals and schools.
Unwilling or unable to change this model, some governments have encouraged people to procreate – “One for mum, one for dad, and one for the country,” was a famous line from Australian Treasurer Peter Costello, as he launched a ‘baby bonus’ incentive scheme in 2002.
Jersey, however, is unlikely to see a “one for your Island” campaign, at least not in the near future. In its recently published ‘Common Population Policy Annual Report 2025’, the government concludes: “In line with many other countries, Jersey continues to see a declining birth rate. The experience of other countries is that direct intervention to increase birth rates has relatively limited results and can be very costly.”
It adds: “Ministers are instead focusing their efforts on supporting parents and ensuring that Jersey is a safe, attractive and affordable place to bring up a family.
“The Investing in Jersey programme, launched in August 2025, sets out an ambitious plan to build more affordable family homes, improve sport and leisure facilities and upgrade schools and colleges.
“The 2026 budget provides extra support for parents with childcare costs and 5,357 children in 22 primary schools now have access to a nutritious school lunch.”
The report – which the government is obliged to produce each year – goes on to list other things it is going to boost the workforce and keep tax revenue coming in.
These include:
- Reviewing work permit policies, with an expansion of skilled worker routes to give workers and their families a route to long term residence in Jersey.
- Relaxing the rules under the Control of Housing and Work Law to support more licensed jobs, which is the old ‘j-cat’ essential employee status.
- Expanding the ‘Licensed Lease Only’ work category – which are people considered essential but can only rent qualified property – to include certain nursery, education and healthcare roles,
- Prioritising the building of family sized homes
- Offering taxpayer-funded childcare hours for 2–3-year-olds, worth up to £6,270 per school year.
- Changing the eligibility criteria for IVF funding.
The government also cite building Oakfield Community Sports Centre, redeveloping Fort Regent and providing school meals in all States’ schools as examples of where it is supporting families.
Jersey is not alone in having a falling fertility rate, with South Korea leading the global OECD list, with a total fertility rate of 0.75. Like Australia, the country has introduced several support measures, including baby bonuses and cash rewards to reduce the cost of marriage and childcare, and it is in a cautious period of rising birthrates.
Despite the rebound in births, South Korea continued to record a natural population decline, as the number of deaths increases.
South Korean demographic experts have warned that a prolonged decline in fertility could cause the country’s 51m population to halve over the next 60 years.
Back in Jersey, in the last ten years (2014 to 2024) the Island’s population has increased by 4,480 people (4.5%). In the ten-year period before that (2004 to 2014), the population increased by 9,960 people (11%).
The largest change in the five-year period between the end of 2019 and the end of 2024 was among the population aged 65 and above, which increased by 12%, while the population aged under 16 decreased by 7%.
At the end of 2024, there were 68,530 people of working age (16 to 64) living in Jersey, an increase of 180 over the previous year.
In 2001, those of working age represented 65.4% of the total population, but that is expected to fall to 58.7% by 2040.
Under the current system of working age people funding the pensions and care of generations above them, a reducing workforce will have potentially have negative impacts.
The established answer for Jersey has been migration; however, as the report states: “Whereas Jersey could previously rely on migrant workers from Europe, improved economic conditions in those countries and the loss of free movement of EU labour means that the Island now needs to become globally competitive if it is to continue to attract migrant workers.”
It adds: “As our immigration statistics indicate, Jersey is utilising workers from the rest of the world countries – outside of Great Britain, Ireland and the EU – on an increasing basis, and we are doing this in competition with a large number of other western countries who find themselves in a similar position of a dwindling working age population.
“Whereas Jersey provides a range of interesting work opportunities and has good employment protection, it also has some disadvantages for potential workers – being an island, Jersey suffers from a shortage of inexpensive travel opportunities, for example. The cost of living is high, supply of registered accommodation has diminished, and some is of poor quality.
“In line with these pressures, since 2020 the statistics indicate a decline in the number of European Union migrant workers and a significant increase in workers coming from non-Common Travel Area and EU countries (’Rest of World’)”
The number of non-British, Irish or EU nationals aged over 20 increased by 3,190 between 2019 and 2024, the biggest single increase being Filipino (increase of 770 people to 920, or 502%) followed by Kenyan (700 people to 800, 703%), Zimbabwean (220 to 340, 174%) South African (200 to 540, 60%) and Indian (180 increase to 370, 97%).
Islanders from elsewhere in the world (outside of UK, Ireland and EU) grew by 1,120 to 2,070 over the five-year period, or a 118% increase.
Over that same time, Portuguese or Madeiran nationals fell by 430 to 8,190, a 5% fall, and the number of Polish nationals decreased by 390 to 2,450, a 14% drop. All other EU nationals in Jersey fell in number.
At the end of 2024, 1,480 people in Jersey had a long-term work permit, with 93% being held by workers with a ‘rest of world’ nationality. Family members of long-term work permit holders were an additional 850 adults and children.
Statistics Jersey report that at the end of 2024, there were 1,740 residents subject to a temporary work permit, with 87% held by workers with a ‘rest of world’ nationality.
In terms of registration cards issued under the Control of Housing and Work Law, there has been a significant rise in the number of people holding a ‘Licensed’ status over the last five years. At the end of 2019, 2,310 people had licensed status, and this total has risen by 41% to 3,250 people at the end of 2024.
At the end of 2024, the total number of registered workers had risen to 5,430 (6.4% of the 20+ population) but of these 1,710 were also subject to a temporary work permit and would not be able to build up residence and status under the CHWL law.
The great majority of adults living in Jersey have ‘Entitled’ status having lived in the Island for at least ten years. In 2024, 1,000 people transitioned to this status but there was net outward migration of ‘Entitled’ people totalling 810 people.
Combined with other minor changes, the total net growth in the population of ‘Entitled’ people aged over 20 was +290 (0.4%) in 2024.
There has been a significant rise in the number of people holding a ‘Licensed’ status over the last five years. At the end of 2019, 2,310 people had licensed status, and this total has risen by 41% to 3,250 people at the end of 2024.
The report states: “Policy changes announced during 2025 are designed to increase the number of licensed jobs available and this group is likely to continue to grow in coming years. At present, the total number of licensed people (aged over 20) is 3,250, representing a little under 4% of the adult (20+) population.
The government says in the report that it has taken measures to boost the economy, making Jersey a more attractive place to work over other jurisdictions.
These include:
- Making the financial services industry more competitive
- Investment in skills and supporting businesses
- Reviewing its work permit policy
- Setting up a ‘Migrant Safeguarding Group’
- Attracting inward investment and entrepreneurs
Ministers say they are also supporting older islanders to stay healthy and active.
