James Jeune looks at the government’s latest stance on whether the Island could become an energy exporter.
IT has been more than a year since States Members agreed that the Council of Ministers would investigate the feasibility of an offshore wind farm – of up to one-gigawatt in generating capacity – in the south-west of the Island’s territorial waters.
Environment Minister Steve Luce, who has described the potential scheme as “one of the largest projects this Island might ever undertake”, told a review panel in September that he would bring forward his recommendation to the States this month.
Alongside Economic Development Minister Kirsten Morel, Deputy Luce has led research into the conditions needed for a developer to safely and effectively construct, operate, and decommission an offshore wind farm.
His subsequent report, published yesterday [THURSDAY], has recommended holding off on a decision to progress such a project until there is “sufficient engagement” with the UK and France to determine market conditions and export access.
Writing in the foreword of the Offshore Wind Energy document, Deputy Luce said it was “right that we take the time to assess all factors fully before proceeding”.
But could it be done?
One viable site, located in Jersey’s south-west territorial waters, has been identified as
suitable for a development with an estimated maximum capacity of around one-gigawatt.
If Jersey was to proceed, it is estimated that the project could begin in the late 2030s with operations commencing around 2040.
The report notes that a wind farm would cost “billions of pounds” for a developer to construct and operate and that there is “no scenario” in which the government could build one independently, or as a senior part of a consortium.
It added: “Jersey Electricity currently has no plans to participate in a developer consortium, although it continues to play a key role, particularly should some of the power be landed on the Island.”
Instead, the government’s role would be to create the conditions needed for a developer to construct and operate a wind farm, including through legislation, regulation and consenting work, to secure benefits for the Island.
How much could Jersey make?
The minister’s report also highlighted that Jersey would not be able to consume all the power generated from a commercially viable scheme and therefore requires “energy export arrangements” with another jurisdiction.
It contended that any economic return on the project would be entirely dependent on securing “favourable” access to UK or French energy markets.
Subject to this being achieved, initial economic modelling has indicated offshore wind could deliver a potential benefit of at least £4 for every £1 of public expenditure on the project.
So why delay a decision?
The report explains that “to secure an export market, the government must undertake detailed technical and legal arrangements with the government of an importing jurisdiction”.
“These negotiations can only progress at the pace agreed by all parties,” it added.
Despite “regular and persistent engagement”, the report revealed that discussions with potential importing jurisdictions had not yet progressed “to the required detailed technical and legal level”.
“Therefore, the resources required to support these negotiations cannot yet be estimated and requested.”
It concluded that “current market uncertainty, geopolitical risk and unclear access to export markets make this an unfavourable time to proceed with a leasing process”.
“A decision should only follow once market conditions and access terms are clearly understood and shown to deliver a net benefit for Islanders,” it added.
What happens next?
The report has recommended that securing market access “should be our next focus”.
“Given the current limited clarity from UK and French governments, we plan to continue until the scope of discussions becomes clear,” it continued.
“The pace of work is entirely dependent on the responsiveness of the UK and French governments.
“This internal work currently comes with no additional budgetary or resource requirements and no request for resources is captured in the 2026 Budget.”
“Prioritised discussions” with the UK and France
Deputy Luce described the findings documented in the report as “encouraging”.
“The evidence shows that offshore wind is technically feasible and that, under the right conditions, it could deliver significant economic benefits for the Island,” he stated.
“However, before any decision to progress can be made, we must first secure fair and practical access to neighbouring energy markets.
“That is why I have prioritised discussions with counterparts in both the UK and France to understand the conditions under which Jersey could export energy and to ensure that any arrangement delivers a clear net benefit for islanders.”
Calls for “a clear market access plan”
In a statement, the Offshore Wind Review Panel, which was established following last year’s debate, said that it agreed that “the current geopolitical risk, and unclear access to export markets make it unfavourable to proceed with confidence at this time”.
Panel chair, Deputy Hilary Jeune, said: “We commend the Minister and his team for what has been transparent and open dialogue with us.”
Deputy Jeune continued: “They have kept us updated on progress as this important piece of work has progressed.
“This is a highly significant proposal for Jersey offering economic opportunity, but it comes with high costs and risks.”
She explained that the panel was “in agreement” with the minister’s decision to pause work on bringing forward proposals to move to a leasing process for now.
However, the panel has also called for “a clear market access plan developed for our particular circumstances”, so that Jersey can be ready “once the geopolitical situation is more favourable”.
“A comprehensive plan will also enable Jersey to consider other renewable energy projects in future,” Deputy Jeune added.
