A SHARP decline in the number of births in Jersey could have a major impact on the Island, a think tank has warned.
The Policy Centre Jersey said that the number of births in the first quarter of this year was 151, a fall of 13% from 2024, with the potential that the annual total could be around 630 should this trend continue.
Chief Minister Lyndon Farnham said the combined impact of a falls in the Island’s birth rate and working population, plus increased longevity, were “the biggest challenge we face in the medium to long-term”.
Coinciding with the publication of a briefing paper published by the Policy Centre Jersey today, senior adviser Sir Mark Boleat said:
“Over the last few years discussion on population policy has shifted from reducing immigration towards the implications of the ageing population.
“But it is also important to consider the shorter-term implications of the fall in the number of births.”
The paper shows that 256 deaths were recorded from January to March inclusive, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and that this meant deaths exceeded births by 105 in the first quarter of this year, just over double the 2024 figure.
Should the trend continue through 2025, the Policy Centre forecast an annual total in the range of 620 to 640, which would represent a 30% reduction on the 2021 figure and a 44% reduction on the peak figure recorded in 2012.
Sir Mark added: “The 30% reduction since 2021 has obvious implications for the demand for early years services and primary school enrolment, which will require structural changes in the school system.
“It is not certain why there has been such a drastic fall in the number of births – as in other jurisdictions there has been a fall in the birth rate, that is the number of births in relation to the size of the population, but it may also reflect emigration and reduce immigration of people in their twenties and thirties.”
Deputy Farnham said the government was attuned to the challenge and seeking to address it.
“It is our biggest challenge and it has changed quite significantly,” he said. “Not so long ago the Island was worrying about over-population, but this has turned round quite significantly.”
The latest population policy had been published at the end of 2024 and would be updated annually, he added, while the government would soon be sharing details of its regeneration policy, aimed at tackling the issue.
“We’re acutely aware of these challenges and are developing policies that will address them in the medium to long term,” he added.
