The Island's future – as seen in my crystal ball

From Robert Kisch.

AS one year ends, my crystal ball reflects on the past, the present and looks at a possible scenario for 2013 onwards for Jersey, the UK and the EU.

Jersey still lives the 1939 – 1945 German Occupation, attaching increasing importance to anniversary days of that war period, lest we forget.

Island mentality concentrates and refines that history without perspective. Now resentment turns against UK pressures to interfere with our international financial arrangements.

Senator Sir Philip Bailhache has repeatedly warned that we should have a Plan B in place, covering independence from UK. This could yet happen as we build up our overseas business. Jersey has the skills.

The UK has no land borders, hence the insular attitude which does not fit the European continent picture.

Many opinion polls confirm public rejection of further integration with loss of sovereignty to what is seen as a faceless Brussels bureaucracy.

What started successfully as the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) has become a move to one federal state with one currency. Lacking real financial discipline, uncontrolled borrowing by some member states has resulted in eye-watering debt levels which all EU members are being pressured to support, whether or not they use the euro.

The UK is such a member and could look to Crown dependencies also to contribute. No wonder Sir Philip attaches importance to a Plan B exit strategy from the UK.

The EU members on the Continental mainland (I deliberately exclude the UK) have enjoyed 67 years without border wars.

They have settled their quarrels which led to wars in the past centuries and now are rebuilding their trading relationships. Trade is more important than political borders.

They regard the EU bloc as a unit of sufficient value to negotiate at the trade top table. They cannot understand why the UK would not wish to be part of this when, to the EU mind, the UK could be a major contributor.

The EU is well aware that the UK is and has insular mentality, looking to overseas trade through the Commonwealth and other overseas effort. Jersey is a microcosm of this same outlook.

So, my own crystal ball shows the UK leaving the EU, with Jersey standing up in negotiating with the UK and continuing to provide a channel for the City of London trade, worldwide – and this can include the EU.