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THE year 2025 was a roller-coaster year that will last long in the memories of investors. From the Liberation Day tariffs turmoil that sent markets plunging in early April to a gold rush which has seen the prices of precious metals soar to record highs against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical risks and growing concerns over the perilous state of government finances, it has been an eventful time.
With 2025 now in the rear-view mirror, it is time to look ahead to a new year and we outline six predictions below
Global economy rebounds, stability does not
After a period of subdued momentum, the global economy is expected to regain pace in
2026, supported by excess liquidity and a delayed rebound in investment.
However, this recovery is unlikely to be smooth; for instance, oil prices could fluctuate below $50 and above $75 per barrel during the year as markets respond to geopolitical developments, changes in production and evolving growth expectations.
A tougher environment for growth stocks
Equity markets in 2026 are likely to be shaped more by sector and style leadership than by overall market direction. Higher interest rates and tighter lending conditions could expose vulnerabilities in the technology sector, leaving US growth stocks susceptible to significant repricing, particularly where valuations are stretched.
By contrast, value-orientated areas may benefit. US regional banks and energy services could gain from a more traditional capital cycle, while emerging market equities, led by countries such as Brazil, may outperform developed markets.
In Asia, Chinese technology stocks could outperform US peers as valuations normalise and expectations adjust.
Investment broadens beyond AI
A delayed US capital spending boom could gain momentum in 2026. What began with the artificial-intelligence-driven surge in 2025 may expand into more traditional industries and sectors, supporting productivity and real economic activity.
This broader shift is likely to favour companies tied to tangible investment rather than those driven primarily by narrative-based growth.
The United States grows, without cheap borrowing
US economic growth may again surprise to the upside in 2026, even if the labour market remains less tight than in previous cycles. Housing-related disinflation could challenge the notion that inflation is permanently embedded, helping to keep ten-year US Treasury yields anchored around 4% as the economy continues to expand.
Longer-term borrowing costs, however, may tell a different story. Rising fiscal spending and renewed stimulus could push 30-year Treasury yields significantly higher, potentially approaching 6%, while shorter maturities remain relatively stable. This would mark a clear break from the post-crisis era of steadily falling long-term rates. Politically, a Republican “red wave” in the midterm elections could reinforce this fiscal backdrop.
Currencies no longer move in line with the US dollar
Currency markets in 2026 are expected to reflect regional differences rather than broad US dollar strength. A stalling euro area recovery could weigh on the euro, while Asia-Pacific currencies, including the Australian and New Zealand dollar, may benefit from stronger regional growth.
Japan may stand out. Rising domestic yields, with 30-year Japanese government bonds approaching 4.5%, could support the yen, a rare shift after decades of currency weakness. In contrast, softer conditions in China may continue to weigh on the renminbi.
Asset managers with discipline and nimbleness will capture performance
Team Asset Management maintains disciplined, risk-aware portfolios, combining capital preservation with tactical flexibility. Healthy cash buffers and high-quality bonds provide stability, while targeted adjustments allow the team to capture opportunities.
A clear example is gold. Last year, prices surged from $3,300 to $4,400, and with sentiment elevated and exchange trade fund inflows spiking, it was apparent that optimism had become excessive. Team responded by temporarily reducing exposure and later re-entered gold, silver and mining stocks at more attractive levels. This careful timing helped portfolios capture the rebound and contributed meaningfully to performance.
This approach demonstrates Team’s consistent focus on risk management, timing and selective opportunity capture.
