By Denise Heavey
THERE is a quiet but increasingly important question beginning to echo across Jersey.
Not in formal policy papers or political speeches, but in more ordinary places: around kitchen tables, in conversations outside schools and in the discussions young adults have with their parents when the subject of the future inevitably arises.
The question is simple.
Will the next generation still choose to stay here?
For much of Jersey’s modern history, that question barely needed asking. The Island offered something rare: prosperity combined with stability. Families built lives that often spanned generations. Children grew up assuming they would one day build their own homes, careers and families on the same Island where they were raised.
But today that assumption is beginning to weaken. And the reason is becoming harder to ignore.
The cost-of-living question
Recent research reflects what many families already feel instinctively. A survey conducted by Policy Centre Jersey found that the cost of living is now the single biggest concern among Islanders, with 38% identifying it as the most important issue facing the Island.
That statistic matters.
When the dominant concern in a prosperous community becomes the affordability of everyday life, it signals something deeper than temporary economic turbulence.
Jersey has always been an expensive place to live. Geography ensures that. A small Island dependent on imports will inevitably face higher costs than larger economies. But the difference today is the pace at which those costs are rising and the widening gap between what life costs and what many people earn.
While some sectors of Jersey’s economy are exceptionally well paid, the reality for much of the workforce looks very different.
Teachers, nurses, hospitality workers, retail staff, tradespeople, carers, civil servants and many small business owners form the backbone of the Island’s economy. Their work sustains the services that make Jersey function as a community. Yet, the incomes in many of these professions have not kept pace with the Island’s rising costs. And when everyday living becomes a financial balancing act, the long-term question inevitably arises: is staying sustainable?
Prosperity and the average illusion
One of the challenges in discussing Jersey’s economy is the reliance on averages. On paper, average earnings in Jersey appear strong compared with many neighbouring regions. But averages can be misleading in economies where income distribution varies widely between sectors.
In a financial centre, a relatively small number of very high salaries can significantly lift the statistical average. That does not necessarily reflect the experience of most working households.
For many families, the reality of life in Jersey is not defined by high executive salaries or global finance roles. It is defined by the cost of groceries, childcare, rent, transport and everyday services. And those costs have been climbing steadily.
If prosperity is measured only through headline figures, it risks obscuring the pressures felt by the broader workforce that sustains the Island’s economy.
The real test: opportunity
The deeper question facing Jersey is therefore not simply about prices or wages. It is about opportunity.
A thriving society is not defined solely by its wealth. It is defined by whether individuals from ordinary backgrounds can build stable and fulfilling lives.
Can someone in care afford to raise a family here? Can a teacher expect to settle permanently in the community they serve? Can a young tradesperson or trainee realistically plan to build a future in the Island? These are questions about social mobility, the ability for people to improve their circumstances over time. Many advanced economies now measure social mobility carefully because it reveals something GDP cannot: whether prosperity is genuinely shared.
In Jersey, that conversation is only beginning.
The fiscal reality ahead
At the same time, the Island is approaching a new financial reality.
The next government will face increasing pressure on public finances. Healthcare costs are rising, infrastructure demands are significant and demographic changes will place additional strain on services.
Simply put, future governments will not have the same financial flexibility that existed in earlier decades. That reality requires something Jersey has historically managed well when necessary: discipline in public spending. Not austerity for its own sake, but clarity about priorities.
When resources are finite, governments must focus on the foundations that sustain a functioning society: strong public services, accessible childcare, reliable infrastructure, fair economic opportunity and a cost of living that does not drive essential workers away.
Spending decisions must increasingly answer one central question: Does this help ordinary families remain on the Island?
What keeps a family here
When families decide whether to stay in Jersey, their decision rarely hinges on a single factor. They stay because the Island offers something difficult to replicate elsewhere: safety, community, excellent schools, natural beauty and a strong sense of belonging.
But emotional attachment cannot carry the full weight of economic reality. If the cost of remaining begins to outweigh those advantages, even the strongest ties can weaken.
Small island communities must be especially attentive to this balance. Unlike larger nations, they cannot easily absorb the gradual loss of younger generations.
If teachers leave, schools struggle. If care workers leave, healthcare strains. If tradespeople leave, infrastructure slows. If hospitality workers leave, tourism suffers. In other words, when professions become unsustainable, the entire social ecosystem begins to shift.
The leadership challenge
The next government therefore faces a challenge that goes beyond traditional political debate. It must answer a fundamental question: What will make the average family choose to stay in Jersey?
Not just those in high-income sectors. But the teachers, carers, engineers, tradespeople, retail workers and small business owners who make everyday island life possible.
Answering that question will require thoughtful economic planning, responsible public spending and a clear understanding that prosperity must reach beyond headline figures.
Because ultimately, the strength of an island is not measured by its wealth alone.
It is measured by whether the people still believe their future belongs there.
And ensuring that belief remains possible may be the most important task Jersey’s next government faces.
Denise Heavey is a recruitment specialist, mediator in training, and former business leader who champions family wellbeing and mental health. Having led businesses and stepped back to raise her family, she understands both commercial pressures and the hidden strain on carers. She is co-founder of Mentorhood, empowering parents through specialist-led workshops and helping businesses build family-friendly policies.
