THE Government has just published the latest data on the Island’s population, something which in previous years would have provided much fertile material for prospective election candidates.
Although it’s always been a complex debate, in previous years the population policy has typically been viewed through the over-simplified lens of a single target number, which year-on-year we failed to meet.
Throughout that period, Ministers did raise the underlying policy questions, such as the problem being created by a steadily ageing population – but the debate always tended to circle back to that magic total number.
That seems to have now changed, and the complex underlying issues are now coming to the fore; perhaps that’s because it is becoming increasingly clear that the Island stands at the nexus of a group of complex issues for its future prosperity, issues which extend well beyond our own borders, and sphere of direct control.
The data contained in the latest population report is essential – but the themes that data elucidates are as follows.
Firstly, in common with many other countries, we have too few babies being born, with the fertility rate well below the number needed for a stable population. Given that Australian policies like “one for mum, one for dad and one for the Island” are unlikely, Ministers have elected instead to work on policies intended to improve family life.
The core problem is a system which generates income – via tax and social security – through jobs to support the people who are no longer working. Having fewer people of working age obviously causes a major problem.
Previously, the island has alleviated it through migration. But that’s just got more difficult too. As the report notes…
“Whereas Jersey could previously rely on migrant workers from Europe, improved economic conditions in those countries and the loss of free movement of EU labour means that the Island now needs to become globally competitive if it is to continue to attract migrant workers.”
Which is why we are seeing an increase in workers from the Philippines, Kenya, South Africa, Zimbabwe and India.
And then we need to factor in the major unknown – how will AI develop, and specifically what impact will it have on the number of jobs available? As businesses need to become more efficient, using more technology provides the solution; does also that mean fewer ‘tax-paying’ jobs, or just different ones?
The basic population question has long vexed policy-makers; the difference now is that it is floating in a cocktail of complex problems which the Island can influence, but not control.
