By Richard Digard
GUERNSEY’S general election turnout last week of more than 70% will, I imagine, be a source of some amazement in Jersey as it prepares for its own vote in 12 months’ time. Amazement because, if trends continue, turnout here could be little more than half of the other island’s.
In comparison, Guernsey’s achievement is a stand-out example of how to do it properly and achieve stellar voter engagement. The same voter activism that led to a People’s Purge, as a swathe of duffers and chancers were swept from the island’s Assembly.
Alongside that, what a contrast with Jersey. This island has the lowest voter turnout among the 38 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries with an OECD average of 68% to Jersey’s 44%.
A double victory for the donkeys! Well, possibly…
Jersey has difficulties in encouraging Islanders to take elections seriously, but Guernsey is heading the same way. Yes, its headline figure is arresting, but it’s in decline. At the previous election in 2020, when treating the whole island as a single electoral district was attempted for the first time, turnout was just shy of 80%.
Look more deeply at last week’s figures, however, and that’s based on those registered and eligible to vote. This year, in rounded figures, that was 27,300, 4,000 fewer than in 2020. In turn, the number of islanders who thought they might want to vote in 2000 was just 25,000. So island-wide elections triggered a bit of interest, but that’s now declining. And on the day significantly short of 20,000 actually voted.
So what’s causing this decline in interest? The answer, according to Deputy Charles Parkinson, who will be a candidate for Guernsey’s next chief minister, is clear.
“It’s a sad reflection on the last Assembly. We have lost the trust of the people,” he said on X/Twitter. Worse, he’s absolutely correct.
A landmark survey on the issues that really motivate islanders showed with alarming clarity that 76% felt Guernsey was heading in the wrong direction (the figure for Jersey was 68%) while a lack of faith in politics, politicians and government was 66% (63% here).
Disengagement and distrust, it seems, is baked in. And it would have been even worse in Guernsey bar for one thing. The performance of the previous Assembly has been so lamentable voters wanted to punish the perpetrators.
So the People’s Purge saw four ministers lose their seats and 12 sitting members turfed out. It was an unexpected benefit from island-wide voting – the ability not to vote for up to 82 candidates – and there was much jubilation that the heads of Education, Planning, and Home Affairs were all toppled, along with the flamboyant president of the less significant States Assembly and Constitution Committee.
And what’s driving the dissatisfaction in Guernsey is clear: housing. Specifically, the lack of it and the cost, particularly rents. That’s followed by the economy, the cost of living (driven by housing), and lack of faith in government. Education and schools are also a specific issue in Guernsey.
Jersey has similar concerns, especially over the cost of living, but the stand-out issue here is healthcare/hospitals, with 77% citing it as a major problem, closely followed by inflation and prices.
What these survey findings have in common is that people simply believe government is letting them down. Politicians have been ignoring the needs of “ordinary” islanders as their lives and their disposable incomes get worse. Look at recent headlines and it’s all about the Opera House, the death of netball and ministers debating more money for themselves.
These are not real-world issues for islanders trying to buy a home, pay the rent or juggling work with bringing up a family and being unable to afford child care. But how often does the States of Jersey debate such topics, let alone offer tangible solutions to the problems parents face? That’s parents, incidentally, who are in increasingly short supply as birthrates plummet.
Clearly then, increasing numbers of Channel Islanders believe their politicians are not interested in them or improving their lives, so why get involved with Deputies or the pie-crust promises they make?
And when it comes to making people’s lives better, Guernsey appears committed to making them worse, by introducing GST in 2027. True, a late amendment means it now won’t be imposed on food, but will rise to 6% as a result and a “GST-plus” element is supposed to protect the least well-off.
Middle Guernsey will, however, continue to feel squeezed, houses will become no more affordable and the education system continue to fail students and employers because, even if there’s the will, these things take time to improve.
Guernsey’s vote last week was for two things – to punish its worst Deputies and reach for a better future. We’ll see what happens over the next four years, but there is certainly some optimism in the air.
As Jersey gears up for its own general election, there are plenty of pointers for what might encourage elector engagement, and that’s all about quality of life. Not for the well-off. A separate survey in Guernsey has shown how pleasant the island is for those with a few bob but pretty difficult for those without.
Which is why fully 51% of islanders say money is often or always a source of stress and 30% couldn’t meet an unexpected bill of £1,000.
I doubt it’s much different here. Work by the Jersey Community Relations Trust suggests a quarter of all households have “relative low income”. So that’s around 11,000 homes or 25,000 Islanders who experience similar money worries to those revealed in Guernsey.
All of which means that if voter apathy is driven by how much difference folk believe politicians make to their lives, there are some further lessons for next year’s candidates. So anyone thinking of standing for the States of Jersey in 2026 needs to ask a simple question:
“Why should the least well-off in Jersey trust me to make their lives better?”
Richard Digard is a former editor and director of the Guernsey Press and Star and has recently retired as chairman of Guernsey Post Ltd. He has been a Douzenier of the Vale Parish in Guernsey since 2016 and is a consultant and media commentator.
