Lloyd Adams, investment manager at Team Asset Management, offers this week’s global market review, which focuses on AI, geopolitics and metals
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DID you know that market behaviour has been almost identical across Donald Trump’s first and second terms at this stage? US equities have delivered broadly comparable gains in both periods, with the S&P 500 up 17% in the first 317 trading days. Despite very different political and economic backdrops, the market has so far traced a remarkably consistent path.
Looking to the last week, US equities remain at record highs, driven largely by a strong rally in semiconductor stocks linked to artificial-intelligence demand.
Chipmakers have benefited from rising earnings expectations as they sit at the centre of the AI build-out, supplying the critical infrastructure for data centres and advanced computing.
However, valuations have moved up sharply, raising questions over how sustainable the rally is and the extent to which it depends on continued technology spending.
European equities were broadly steady at the start of the week, although sector performance was mixed.
Energy stocks found support from higher oil prices, while chemicals and parts of the consumer sector slipped over concerns around supply chains linked to Middle East tensions.
Asian equities were generally lower overall after an early rally faded, as renewed geopolitical concerns weighed on sentiment. Japan and South Korea initially reached fresh highs, supported by strong corporate earnings, with technology and financial heavyweights such as SoftBank Group and Samsung Electronics helping to limit losses.
This week’s market winners were led by United Rentals (+22%), which supplies construction and industrial equipment, and which benefited from strong infrastructure demand. Intel and Texas Instruments both surpassed over 20% with stronger-than-expected earnings.
On the downside, the market losers this week included Medpace (-21%), which supports drug trials. Its fall was linked to rising project cancellations.
Lululemon (-14%) declined amid management leadership concerns, while Freddie Mac (-15%) weakened following changes to US mortgage assessment rules.
Attention is also on US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, who is facing a decision over whether to remain at the central bank after a criminal investigation into renovations at its headquarters was shifted away from the Justice Department and into an internal review.
Markets are watching closely, particularly as President Trump continues to push for lower interest rates.
In energy markets, oil prices pushed higher as tensions between the United States and Iran showed little sign of easing. Stalled negotiations and ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have kept markets on edge, with concerns over supply driving a notable rise in crude of around 10% over the week.
In response, global buyers are increasingly turning to the United States, where exports of oil and refined products have reached record levels, helping to offset shortages elsewhere.
Metal markets were more subdued, with prices under pressure as firmer energy costs, a stronger US dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment.
Gold edged lower, reflecting limited safe-haven demand and greater sensitivity to moves in bond yields and currency shifts. Industrial metals were more mixed: copper eased back from recent highs, while nickel strengthened, supported by emerging supply concerns linked to potential production disruptions in Indonesia.
For those interested in cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin extended its recent momentum, recording a fourth consecutive weekly gain and continuing its recovery, although it remains well below last year’s peak.
Investor demand has been supported by steady inflows into bitcoin-linked exchange-traded products, with new launches from major institutions in both the US and Europe highlighting growing mainstream adoption.
Looking ahead, attention will focus on major US technology companies, which are reporting results this week.
Today after the market closes, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta (Facebook) are reporting, while tomorrow brings Apple. Investors will also be watching central banks for key policy decisions from the UK and ECB tomorrow.
