JERSEY’S population is now 103,267, according to the 2021 census taken on 21 March last year.
The latest figure is 4,533 less than the 2019 population estimate, which statisticians now believe was based on the untypical snapshot of the 2011 census, with the population rise of 5,400 since 2011 much more consistent with rates of increase seen over the previous 20 years.
But other trends confirm the challenges currently facing the Island’s government. In the context of the housing crisis, 924 more properties were vacant in 2021 than ten years before, and the average occupancy rate of properties – the amount of people per household – continues to fall.
Meanwhile, the dependency ratio – the relationship between those outside working age compared to the number earning – rose from 46% to 52%.
Presenting the first of two census reports before this summer’s general election, chief statistician Ian Cope said that the main factor affecting the disparity between previous population estimates and the latest confirmed figure was inward migration, which across the ten-year period between 2011 and 2021 stood at 3,300.
‘The previous period was a time of increased migration, particularly from the accession countries and Poland, and that trend was carried forward into the population estimate,’ he said.
‘We can see now that quite a lot of Polish people, in particular, who arrived in 2004 are no longer in Jersey. In the decade to 2011, we had something like 3,200 Poles arrive in Jersey.
‘In the decade to 2021, it was minus 380, so there’s been a big shift and population estimates would have carried that trend forward.’
But Mr Cope added that a further factor was the combination of Brexit and the pandemic, which meant that people left the Island or did not arrive in the numbers expected because of travel restrictions imposed to combat the worldwide Covid crisis.
Housing
The number of vacant properties grew significantly in the decade to census day last year.
At a time when the government is grappling with an escalating housing crisis, it is likely to be a major concern that 8.3% of the Island’s stock remains empty.
Commenting on the 4,027 private dwellings identified as vacant on census day, Mr Cope said: ‘Some of that might be a temporary effect as well – property that might have been kept for temporary migrant workers that weren’t here.
‘Our next report will be on housing and we hope to do some in-depth analysis, but we wanted to release the numbers now to give the broader context,’ he said.
Although the number of private dwellings in Jersey increased by 3,912 (9%) to 48,610, the occupancy ratio has been falling consistently from 2.79 people per dwelling in 1971, to a total of 2.27 on census day 2021.
Where are we living?
Analysis of population by parish shows that the largest percentage increase was in Grouville, where the population rose by 535 to 5,401, putting it slightly ahead of St Peter at 5,264.
St Helier remains the most populous parish with the greatest density per square kilometre. The Island’s capital accommodates 35,822, ahead of St Saviour (13,904), St Brelade (11,012), and St Clement (9,925). St Mary remains the least-populated parish with only 1,818 residents.
The largest number of Islanders by age are those in their fifties, which foreshadows a further increase in the dependency ratio as many approach retirement age during the course of the next census period.
In 2021, half of Jersey’s residents were born in the Island, with almost a third born in the British Isles, 8% in mainland Portugal or Madeira, and 3% in Poland.
Of those born elsewhere, 1,338 came from Romania, an increase of 875 on 2011. About one in 11 Jersey residents considered themselves to be Portuguese or Madeiran, representing almost 1,500 more people than were born in Portugal or Madeira.
For the first time in 2021 the census asked questions about gender identity and sexual orientation, although it allowed respondents to ‘prefer not to say’ if they wished.
A total of 90.5% replied that they retained the gender they were registered as at birth, with 0.2% replying that they did not and 9.2% opting to remain silent.
Some 87% reported themselves as heterosexual, 2% as gay or lesbian, 0.7% as bisexual, 0.2% as ‘another sexual orientation’, while 10.7% preferred not to say.
As politicians absorb the latest census data, attention is likely to focus on improving population forecasting in the future, prompted also by the population policy’s call for better data.
Statistics Jersey has secured £500,000 funding split between 2022 and 2023 for what Mr Cope described as ‘data linkage’, relating information held by different government departments to help produce more accurate information about whether migrants remain in the Island.
Whereas information about births and deaths is accurate, figures for migrants are currently subject to estimates, which can be less reliable.
‘We are not the only country that struggles with this,’ Mr Cope said. ‘We know about migrants who have to register, but what we tend not to know about is migrants leaving, because you don’t have to deregister. In the population estimates we have to make an assumption about how many people of incoming migrants are going to stay here, and it’s that that we think we overestimated.’
In Scandinavian countries information from tax, social security and health departments was first used to establish those who were no longer in the country, an approach now used in the UK.
In Jersey, the 2018 Census Law allows such information to be used, but it requires greater structuring to improve population forecasting.
‘I have secured funding to help pull this information together this year and next year, but ultimately it will be a decision for the next Council of Ministers whether they want to fund it going forward,’ Mr Cope added.
