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COMMENT: An enforceable population policy must be implemented
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Improved health care and social factors have led to significant reductions in the average number of children per woman in recent years. Across Europe fertility rates average below 2 with Jersey at 1.5 children per woman similar to rates for Germany and Spain and a little below the UK at 1.9 and France at 2.0.
These low birth rates have often been a key driver for immigration. However, over the last year there have been significant decisions against immigration with Brexit and President Trump winning the public anti-immigrant vote and the rise of similar nationalist movements in other European countries. The negative impact of tight controls on immigration into the UK are now being explored in detail and the previously hardline view of Theresa May’s government is softening.
Jersey has also been reliant on immigrants to boost the working age population. A major public consultation completed in 2008 (Imagine Jersey 2035) supported limited immigration but also drew attention to the importance of protecting the countryside and natural environment. In recent years there has been very little political leadership in this area. Immigration levels have risen steadily. Whilst the States has approved and extended a population policy, this seems to have had no noticeable impact on the rate of immigration.
Whereas a case might be made for a limited level of immigration to maintain a stable population balance, the current level of growth is well in excess of that level and little is being done at present to address this. Left unchecked the ongoing population growth will place a major strain on the environment. Whilst individual voices have raised these issues, politicians now need a clear message from the public at large that they can no longer ignore this issue or sweep it under the carpet. A realistic population policy that can actually be enforced must be agreed and acted upon.
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