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Population:Plan for the real world
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An example of the gulf between what was planned by the States and what actually happened emerged from the recently published census data. Although a Strategic Plan target for net immigration was set at 325 people per year, the census day count showed that this limit had been exceeded by a very considerable margin.
In fact, over the decade since the census of 2001 the average level of immigration was double the rate which the States had decided was acceptable.
Immigration and population were, of course, major issues during the recent States elections.
They are also issues at the top of the agenda proposed by the new Chief Minister, Senator Ian Gorst, who insists that an upper population limit of 100,000 should be no mere target but an integral part of government’s core policy.
Senator Gorst has now begun to flesh out the means by which the lid can be kept on the number of people living in the Island. And as well as saying that the previous administration set targets with no realistic methods of enforcing them, he says that the present executive will have to do a better job.
However, his criticism of past performance does not extend to migration legislation which was approved and is due to come into force in the middle of next year. Indeed, he says that the Control of Housing and Work Law, coupled with the new population database, will be valuable tools in the drive to limit immigration.
It is possible that the new law will make the contribution to meeting targets in the way that Senator Gorst forecasts. Unfortunately, it is also possible that even with the database, the associated registration cards and the rest of the bureaucratic apparatus connected with housing and work legislation will be insufficient to exercise the rigid control that will be required.
Senator Gorst certainly appears to be on the right track – and a track that will find favour with a great many Islanders – but he, his ministerial colleagues and other States Members must remain prepared to think again if present plans and real-world conditions diverge.
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