2025 may have been and gone, but many of the core issues raised last year of course remain. Some may be resolved in the final months of this administration, but others seem certain to land squarely in the in-tray of the new Assembly. Remember, this is also likely to be the year when we will see a recruitment process, and presumably the appointment of a new Chief Executive – we are still waiting for formal confirmation of that critical point.
If there is a new person at the helm, they will want to make sure they have strong and clear political backing behind them, with a crystal-clear mandate, as that is the only way difficult decisions can really be taken.
Those decisions are likely to fall on both sides of the balance sheet – as analysts have regularly pointed out in these columns, the island is spending more than we earn, and while we still have a very sizeable sum in the bank, that is unsustainable.
What we can afford to spend in future needs to be the subject of an open and honest conversation between islanders and the new government, as does the amount that is raised through taxation.
It was pointed out in these pages over the festive break that the most recent Budget debate might have lasted for five days but there was little in the way of either ideological, or technical, discussion of how our tax system might be adapted to meet the island’s needs.
Personal income tax still accounts for the significant majority (59%) of the Government’s budgeted revenue for this year, which means the workforce needs to remain large, well-utilised, and well-paid. It dwarfs the numbers received from GST (10%), Impôts (5%) Stamp Duty (3%).
Understanding what the Island both wants, and needs, for the future is clearly a major initiative which remains outstanding. It will need to be placed in priority order with a few other weighty items of business, which may include the future method of paying for health care and how education is funded since our schools still seem to be contending with significant debts; and let’s not forget the obviously thorny debate around the size of the public sector, and the level of service it is able to provide.
But while the optimism of New Year remains, the fact that so many weighty items remain to be discussed is also an opportunity – a new Chief Executive, and a new Council of Ministers, will really have the chance to shape the Island’s future.
