By Richard Digard
BLIMEY, it’s changed a bit round here since I last appeared in these hallowed pages. More women than men in the States of Jersey, and a new Chief Minister who’s eligible to be interviewed on the BBC’s flagship Woman’s Hour programme, now with added teeth thanks to presenter Emma Barnett – as Deputy Kristina Moore discovered…
Being charitable, it appears there was a gap between interviewee and interviewer. One appeared prepped to talk about an election of change, providing fresh hope for Jersey, and becoming the Island’s first female chief minister. The other wanted to take a grubby tax haven to task for enabling the super-rich to grind the rest into poverty and zero-hours contracts.
Ah well, Deputy Moore can always get better PR minders, I suppose, and it was an effective lesson that the agenda on which you want to be questioned isn’t necessarily the one that’s deemed relevant. Just ask Boris Johnson.
Sadly, it won’t be a one-off for the Chief Minister or her colleagues and I fear the next few months will be similarly eye-opening.
For instance, and purely as a random example, how much of the Jersey Liberal Conservatives’ manifesto is deliverable? I won’t go through it line by line but it had this opening pledge: ‘We will reinstate prudence with our finances, avoid waste, and make Jersey’s government more efficient, more open, and more responsive to the needs of Jersey people.’
At a glance, you can see the inherent tension – conflict, more likely – between fiscal prudence and responding to the needs of Jersey people. What they want is homes they can afford, a secure job that pays enough to feed the family and save a bit, and a better standard of living for their children when they grow up. None of which is provided by vague election promises or by spending less.
The underlying problem for Jersey, however, is people. You may not be aware of this but when I was a nipper, the population was about half its current 103,000. In 1951, for instance, you had 7,756 fewer people living here than Guernsey’s current 63,000 residents.
Since then, the population has grown significantly, and by 5,400 in the last ten years alone. Here’s the thing, though. You can’t live without immigration. There are already chronic shortages of staff, and economic growth, needed simply to stand still in inflation terms let alone do more, is being hampered.
You may have seen the headlines recently when the population of England and Wales aged 65 and over finally surpassed the number of children aged under 15. Guernsey, I can tell you, hit that milestone a good number of years ago. We really have become God’s waiting room.
Jersey’s there too, with 16,476 under-16s but 18,736 over-65s (including 241 aged 95 and over and 25 aged 100 or over). Not enough young beans are coming along to get jobs, pay taxes and keep the old ones in comfort and care homes.
Here’s the rub for Deputy Moore and her colleagues: this position would be even worse without immigration. Well, strictly net migration, the balance between those coming in or leaving, and the excess of births over deaths. Net migration in the ten years to 2021 was 3,300, while natural growth was 2,100.
The good ladies of Jersey have been remarkably consistent in adding new crapauds – 985 in 1970 and 903 in 2021 – whereas Guernsey’s birth rate has been steadily declining. Trigger Jersey rejoicing: we Guerns are heading towards extinction.
Before popping those Champagne corks, however, the Jersey census showed rather starkly that although the working age and under-16 populations are essentially unchanged in ten years, the number of pensioners has gone up just under 30%. In other words, the rising cost of looking after older Islanders will fall on fewer taxpayers.
Add the reduction in working-age recent arrivals compared to 2011 – particularly the 20-44-year-old bracket – and you can see why the labour market is tight. Separately, another statistic (persons per dwelling) shows that although the number of new homes has increased, the number living in them has fallen (from 2.79 in 1971 to 2.27 today). That’s partly why you have a housing crisis.
What all this means is administrations, manifestos and ministers might change, but the underlying problems they face do not.
Guernsey’s been agonising over its demographic timebomb for years and has still been caught out by it. Hence the £85 million a year fiscal deficit it has managed to engineer, plus the looming introduction of GST.
In short, while at different stages of the cycle, each island faces identical problems of rising costs, too few homes, labour shortages, healthcare issues, limited space, an ageing population and increasing global uncertainties. All while, thus far, resolutely refusing to contemplate tackling them jointly.
So welcome to the new role, Kristina. It really is time someone started doing things differently.
