Dr Ivan Muscat said that thanks to new protective measures the number of potential infections and deaths resulting from another spike were being progressively downgraded with each forecast.
His comments came as it emerged that the Island is likely to have passed the milestone figure of 100,000 vaccine doses being administered.
However, Dr Muscat has urged the around 4,000 people who have been offered a first vaccine dose but have not yet had it to come forward – describing vaccination as ‘the only way out of this pandemic’.
Five new cases of coronavirus have been detected in Jersey since Friday – four from inbound travel and one from contact tracing – bringing the total number of known active cases up to eight.
Dr Muscat also responded to those calling for the ban on stand-up drinking to be lifted, describing it as one of the most dangerous activities to allow. He said it often occurred in places with poor ventilation, no social distancing, with people not wearing masks as they were drinking, and speaking loudly to be heard in a crowded space.
‘The people who are most likely to face the greatest risk are the young who are yet to be vaccinated so we want to vaccinate them as much as possible before we reopen those venues where this takes place – for their sake and the sake of the population,’ Dr Muscat said.
Statistics released yesterday showed that a total of 99,736 doses of the vaccine had been given by 19 May with 59,281 people receiving their first dose and 40,455 receiving a second dose.
He said: ‘I think a third wave is possible but the initial thoughts about the third wave from about two to three months ago have been reviewed on a two- to three-weekly basis and the size of that third wave has been revised downwards at every step.
‘Additionally it is felt any uptick [in cases] is not likely to occur in the summer but more so in autumn and the UK has purchased 60 million doses of Pfizer as a booster dose. There are moves to try to dampen down any possible further activity.’
Late last year, the Kent variant became a concern for Jersey and authorities began sending random test samples to the specialist Porton Down laboratories to ensure that any traces of the strain were detected. It is thought that type of Covid may have caused active case numbers to surge to over 1,000 just before Christmas.
With the emergence of the Indian variant, which is thought to be more transmissible, Dr Muscat said the Health Department had begun using a new laboratory so they could be alerted to its possible presence earlier.
‘Sequencing [random sampling] is ongoing and will continue to happen,’ he said. ‘We have sought to reduce our turnaround time to 48 hours rather than the week or so by sending the samples to a different laboratory while still liaising with Public Health England and Porton Down so they are fully aware of what we are seeing.
‘We are just trying to get earlier results so we get an earlier accurate picture of where we are and that has been in place for about a week. We know the system works and we are yet to see any results.’
He added: ‘The people who have been vaccinated are those at increased risk – the elderly and those who have disease or have been undergoing treatment.
‘If you look at the Bolton area [which has experienced an outbreak of the Indian variant] most infections have been in the young because they have not yet been vaccinated and young people tend to interact more. Although they are more likely to be infected they are less likely to develop severe disease.’
And appealing to those who have not yet taken up the opportunity of having the vaccine, Dr Muscat said: ‘Some may not want to be vaccinated while the message may not have got through to others. But the message is please do go ahead and be vaccinated. There have been thousands of lives saved across the world because of it and vaccination is the only way out of this pandemic.’
