WITH UV levels of seven or eight forecast for the weekend, Islanders are being warned about the risk of sunburn and skin damage if they’re out for long periods without sunscreen or other protection.
Jersey Met has predicted that the UV Index will reach seven today and tomorrow, before rising to eight on Sunday for the first time since last summer.
Although the Island has experienced little in the way of hot weather in recent weeks and predicted weekend maximums of 18°C and 19°C are close to average, senior forecaster John Searson said Islanders may get caught out.
“It’ll be the first time this year with the UV as high, and it’s the UV that will burn you, not the heat,” he said. “If people don’t protect themselves, they’ll be as red as a lobster by the time they head into work on Monday.
“It’ll be a good idea to think about putting on sunscreen, wearing a hat or avoiding the midday sun.”
Mr Searson said the highest UV levels were usually recorded in the weeks around the summer solstice – which will be on 20 June this year – and that eight was normally the highest figure Jersey would register, although readings of nine have occasionally been recorded in the past.
Maximum temperatures for the Island are forecast to rise gradually to 21°C by Tuesday, with a possibility of thundery conditions by Thursday – although Mr Searson said there was considerable uncertainty about the forecast so far ahead.
Although some national media reports have indicated a high probability of a wet summer for the UK – “the soggiest in over a century” according to one speculative headline – Jersey Met has suggested there’s not much evidence of this.
Senior meteorologist Matt Winter said the long-range forecast from the UK Met Office gave the chances of a wetter-than-average summer as 20%, only slightly ahead of the 15% chance that it would be drier than average across June, July and August.
“This is for the UK as a whole, including Scotland, and while it doesn’t actually cover the Channel Islands, it should still be representative and is consistent with signals in other longer-range forecast models,” he said.
The UK Met Office has also given a 45% chance of the summer being hotter than average, bringing “an increased likelihood of heatwaves and other heat-related impacts”.
Figures for May’s weather in Jersey are not yet complete, but provisional data indicates that the month will end up being a little drier than the long-term average, as well as slightly warmer and sunnier.
