During a visit to the Island, Themis Themistocleous, who is the European chief investment officer for UBS, said that while banks had made a lot noise about relocating to the continent, firms would want to keep most of their operations in Britain.
He added that while there could be some movement of staff, the cost of relocating employees and Britain’s large pool of experienced finance workers would probably keep finance operations in places like the UK capital as well as Jersey.
Mr Themistocleous, who is based in London, said that he believed that finance firms had made threats to relocate, which had been publicised in the media, mainly to raise the government’s awareness of the challenges Brexit presents for them.
‘When the Brexit debate first came up a lot of finance firms said that we need certainty when operating in Europe and with passporting [market access],’ he said.
‘As a result, partly I think just to make the government understand the challenges the finance industry has, we have seen a lot of banks and other institutions saying we have to move a lot people in Europe.
‘So I think they raised their voice to make sure that the government knows that uncertainty [will adversely affect them].’
He said that the finance sector would need time to consider any movement of staff to Europe and if no agreements were reached soon this could start happening as early as next year – but movement would be minimal.
‘The problem that the financial industry has is that they cannot wait until the day after Brexit to take action because you want to continue to service your clients,’ he said. ‘There have been reports in the press where banks have taken real estate options in Europe already, just to make sure if they need to move people they have the office space.
‘I think they would delay such a decision as long as possible but it depends what happens in December. General expectation or hope is that the UK will make further progress on the [divorce] payment [to the EU] and then they can discuss a transition period and then trade.
‘If there is no agreement, then they will have to start moving people early next year.’
But he added that firms would be likely to keep any uprooting of operations as little as possible.
‘For the banks and financial institutions moving people to Europe would be an additional cost and there is a reason why London has thrived,’ he said.
‘You have the talent pool and the concentration of operations, which creates synergies. So if you have to move people, you want to keep it to a minimum.’
