‘Brexodus’ claim as figures show surge in EU nationals leaving the UK

Net migration to the UK has fallen to the lowest level for three years after a surge in the number of EU nationals leaving the country.

Official estimates show the overall measure, the difference between arrivals and departures, was at 246,000 in the year to the end of March, a fall of 81,000 compared with the previous 12 months.

Net migration to the UK since 2010 — (PA Graphic)

Statisticians reported much of the change was driven by an increase in emigration, mainly among EU citizens, sparking claims of a “Brexodus”.

The number of EU nationals leaving the UK increased by 33,000 year-on-year to 122,000, the highest outflow for nearly a decade.

There was a particularly sharp rise, of 17,000, in departures of migrants from the so-called EU8 countries which joined the union in 2004, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.

More than half net change in EU migration was by EU8 citizens, down 32,000 from previous year, driven by emigration
https://t.co/4mM969n5X7

— ONS (@ONS) August 24, 2017

There was also a 19,000 fall in the numbers arriving from the EU, although this was not “statistically significant”.

Total EU net migration was estimated at 127,000, a dip of 51,000 on the previous 12 months.

The figure for migration from the rest of the world was also down, by 14,000, to 179,000.

Nicola White, head of international migration statistics at the Office for National Statistics, said: “These results are similar to 2016 estimates and indicate that the EU referendum result may be influencing people’s decision to migrate into and out of the UK, particularly EU and EU8 citizens.

“It is too early to tell if this is an indication of a long-term trend.”

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable said the figures show a “deeply worrying Brexodus”, while Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn warned the NHS was facing recruitment problems due to a lack of EU workers.

Non-EU nationals living inthe UK — (PA graphics)

Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, said the statistics “confirm that Brexit is having a significant impact on migration flows, even before we have left the EU or any changes are made to law or policy”.

Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said: “The recent fall in Eastern European net migration is smaller than the declines we would expect if free movement is abolished, so is really just a taste of what is likely to come next.”

Net long-term migration estimates reflect the balance between the numbers coming to the country or leaving for at least 12 months.

Members of EU are broken down into groups referred to as EU2, EU8 & EU15. This image outlines the countries in each group: pic.twitter.com/HtW26Kn1t6

— ONS (@ONS) August 24, 2017

The overall figure of 246,000 is the lowest since the year ending March 2014.

Lord Green of Deddington, chairman of Migration Watch UK, said: “This is a step forward but it is largely good fortune. This should not obscure the fact that migration remains at an unacceptable level of a quarter of a million a year with massive implications for the scale and nature of our society.”