AFTER the last two long weekends turned out to be somewhat damp squibs, the late May bank holiday is set to be a scorcher, potentially breaking records for the time of year.
Plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the high 20s or early 30s are features of the Jersey Met forecast for at least the next five days, with a possibility that these conditions will persist for the rest of May, coinciding with the half-term holiday that starts today.
Senior forecaster Martin Nduta said: “It starts to hot up on Friday, when it looks like we will hit a maximum of 29°C – this could be quite late in the day, which will mean a warm evening and similar heat on Saturday.”
The warm weather has been caused by a blocking pattern of high pressure over much of Europe, Mr Nduta added, with light winds from the south or south-east drawing in warm air from the continent to the Channel Islands.
Jersey Met’s forecast shows that the maximum temperature could reach 30°C or 31°C by Sunday and that similar highs were expected until well into next week.
Should temperatures exceed 28°C for three successive days, this would cross the official threshold for a heatwave.
If the heatwave does become official, Jersey Met has confirmed this would be the earliest point of the year for such a phenomenon, with data stretching back to 1894. The current record for the highest May temperature stands at 28.9°C, set on 30 May 2003, while the earliest date in the calendar for 30°C to be reached was on 6 June 2003.
Similar high temperatures are forecast for the UK, with a heat alert issued by the UK Health Security Agency across much of the Midlands and south-east England until 5pm on Wednesday.
Earlier this month, the May Day bank holiday weekend got off to a bad start in Jersey with a thunderstorm warning on Saturday morning, when around 10 millimetres of rain were recorded in the space of a few hours, although conditions were a bit more settled by the time of the public holiday the following Monday.
The start of the four-day Easter weekend in early April was little better, with cool, drizzly conditions across the Island on Good Friday. Flight delays and cancellations resulted at Jersey Airport, prior to brighter weather and an upsurge in temperatures on Easter Monday.
Hotting up
- In early summer 2023 Jersey Met introduced a new definition of an official heatwave: the maximum temperature reaching at least 28°C for three successive days. The Island’s most recent heatwave occurred during the second week of July last year, with a high of 31.2°C.
- The UK Met Office has a similar three-day definition for a heatwave, subject to different regional thresholds varying from 25°C in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the north of England to 28°C in London and the counties to the north and south of the capital.
