Chief Minister Ian Gorst has signalled his intention to tackle the most divisive issue in Island politics with a consultation exercise on population scenarios this spring and a States debate before the end of the year.
Weeks after a survey showed that three-quarters of Islanders are concerned or very concerned about the number of immigrants coming to Jersey, it has been revealed that 2013 will see a major ‘Imagine Jersey’-style consultation exercise and political debate.
Control of immigration has been one of the major failures of the States since the 2005 ministerial reforms. Although a target of around 325 new immigrants per year was set by politicians years ago, the last Census revealed in 2011 that the threshold had been more than doubled over the last decade.
The Census also showed that the Island’s population was 97,857 – significantly more than was thought to be the case.
Assistant Chief Minister Paul Routier, who has responsibility for population policy, said that he was very confident that revised controls on access to housing and employment due to come into force in the spring would give the States the information and powers to have a meaningful control of the number of people coming to live and work here.
The Senator said that all options – including a total cap and an open-doors policy – were ‘on the table’ and that nothing was being ruled out before the consultation started.
He said: ‘Once we have got the new law in place, which will hopefully come into force in April, we will then have the tools to make decisions which reflect what the community want with regard to population.
‘The key questions are, for me, what sort of skills and qualifications do we need? What education do we want to provide to ensure that people are coming out of the system with the skills that we need?
‘I am very confident that the new legislation is going to enable us to control the population far better than we have in the past, because we have not had the information in the past.’
Civil servants have been modelling different population options for Jersey to try to forecast the impact of different levels on a range of public services – including health and education – as well as pension funding and tax. That work will inform an event along the lines of the 2007 ‘Imagine Jersey’ conference that will give Islanders the chance to make informed choices about what kind of population policy they want the Island to have, based on the likely implications on development, taxation, retirement age and public spending.
During his 2011 election campaign – before the publication of the Census – Senator Gorst said that the States should set a new population limit of 100,000 and stick to it, and agreed with a JEP election survey statement that ‘it is too easy for people coming in’.
He is not the only Islander with strong views on the subject of immigration.
The recent Jersey Annual Social Survey found that more than half of those aged 55 and over were ‘very concerned’ about the levels of immigration, with just under half wanting the qualifying period for access to benefits for newcomers to be extended beyond the current five-year threshold.
Population figures…
1976 – 71,018
1981 – 76,050
1986 – 80,212
1991 – 84,082
1996 – 85,150
2001 – 87,186
2006 – 92,300
2011 – 97,857
