Amongst all the issues which normally surface in the run-up to an election, one usually tends to dominate. Previously it has been immigration, or more specifically the island’s (non) policy on population growth which has often been the first among equals in terms of issues dominating the pre-election debate.
That’s clearly not the case this time around, accepting the year has not yet even turned and the next election is still some time off; and that in itself is interesting.
But, as the All Island Media Question Time event showed this week, this time, the scale of the public sector is clearly first ‘out of the blocks’ as a candidate for the issue which pervades all election discourse.
There are already two main aspects to it: creeping bureaucracy which is perceived to be strangling the economy; and the ever-increasing wage bill, which its feared will be simply unsustainable in the context of a shrinking economy, and considerable uncertainty over the future role of AI. “Fear” is the right word to use here, and it is what really drives allegations that Ministers have ducked really grasping the big issues, with one eye on the ballot box in June.
There are two sides to that argument. Remember, it’s likely many of the current Ministers will want to be sitting around the same Council table again, having successfully attained the support of the electorate in June – largely based on their current performance at Budget time.
If Islanders genuinely think they have failed to grasp the nettle, then an election can still provide a terminal sting.
And secondly, this is not the first group of Ministers to fail to bring the scale of the public sector under control – the fine words which have long been spoken on this, from the Charlie Parker era backwards, have usually crumbled away into dust when faced with the potential effect on services.
Regular readers of these columns will remember both fundamental, and comprehensive, spending reviews which in part attempted to grapple with similar issues.
Throughout all those years the problem has remained; all that has varied is the degree to which Islanders have been angered by it.
Now, we are in a period of intense focus, and we will see how that translates into action next June. It’s possible, as one panellist predicted, this perennial problem will perpetuate, with the same people sitting in the same room discussing it in a year’s time.
Or, will events remove the luxury of having any time to act?
