By Ben Shenton
WHEN cars first rattled onto the roads, the law demanded that a man walk in front waving a red flag – a human warning system against the terrifying prospect of a horseless carriage. It was absurd, but it reflected the scepticism of the age – horses, we were told, would never be replaced. As one banker famously scoffed in the early 1900s: “The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad.”
Fast forward to Jersey today, and the red flag is being waved once again – this time by professionals who insist we will always need human lawyers, accountants, medical consultants, etc. They assure us that their profession is immune to automation, and are the modern flag-bearers, walking solemnly in front of the inevitable, hoping to slow it down. Sadly for them history is clear: the flag-bearers always lose.
We should not be surprised in any new industry that those who invest big at the start often dominate. Just as hundreds of car companies collapsed into a handful of dominant giants, so too is the tech industry consolidating into a few major players. Disruption breeds concentration and AI is not just another gadget – it is the combustion engine of our age. As Bill Gates once observed: “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”
AI will not politely confine itself to finance or law. It will seep into every corner of Jersey life:
- Education: personalised tutoring, automated marking and a curriculum design tailored to each child – a child learning at their pace rather than the pace of the classroom.
- Public services: streamlined bureaucracy, fewer staff, faster decisions, less mistakes, fewer layers of management.
- Policing: predictive analytics, surveillance and crime prevention powered by algorithms. Less data loss.
- Healthcare: diagnostics more accurate than an human consultant, triage, and even surgery assisted by machines that never tire.
- Transport: robo-taxis and logistics networks that make traffic jams a relic.
- Human Resources: recruitment, interviews, performance monitoring and even dismissal handled by code.
- Elderly care: lonely Islanders able to converse with AI companions, reducing isolation. AI monitoring movement in the home, alerting services should there be a fall or a problem.
- Social Security: fraud detection at a scale currently not possible, benefits processed with ruthless efficiency.
- Taxation: lean, automated systems that leave little room for evasion.
- Tourism: Interactive exhibitions, the possibility to drill down at heritage assets visitors are interested in.
- Planning: applications compared against the Island Plan by impartial algorithms, with officers laid off in swathes.
And beyond these, there will be surprises. The inventors of the internet never foresaw that it would beam pornography into the bedrooms of millions of children. As Arthur C Clarke warned: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic” – and magic always has unintended consequences.
Economies that embrace this transformation will thrive, those that resist will wither. Companies that invest in AI will eliminate staff costs and reap profits, while governments that cling to bloated departments — like economic development, planning, education, health and social security — will be exposed as inefficient relics. As Charles Darwin put it: “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most adaptable to change.”
Yes, there will be disruption, yes, there will be discomfort, but overall AI will be for the greater good. It will free resources, empower innovation and reshape society in ways that make Jersey leaner, smarter and more compassionate — if we have the courage to adapt.
The man with the flag could not stop the car, and the lawyers, consultants and bureaucrats waving their flags today will not stop AI. The big question is whether the Jersey government has the capabilities or appetite to embrace change. If history is any guide, the answer is bleak.
The culture of the public sector is one of self‑protection at all costs. Managers defend their fiefdoms, colleagues shield one another, and change is treated not as opportunity but as threat. This defensive posture may have been tolerable in slower times, but in the age of AI it is lethal. The instinct of Jersey’s bureaucracy is to preserve jobs, not eliminate them, and that instinct collides head‑on with technological reality.
The Island faces another vulnerability: its workforce is largely imported. According to the 2021 Census, almost half of Jersey’s residents were born outside the Island. Surveys have suggested that a majority – around 65% of non‑local workers – would leave if jobs dried up. In an AI‑driven economy, where routine office roles vanish, this is not a hypothetical risk but a looming certainty.
If large‑scale depopulation occurs, the consequences will be severe. Demand for office space will collapse and the Island’s demographics will shift abruptly. The biggest property speculator left holding the baby will be the government itself. The Government of Jersey has become deeply entangled in property development, owning and speculating across sectors – like an octopus with tentacles in every aspect of human life. If office and residential demand falls and values plummet, write‑downs will hammer an already weakened balance sheet leading to credit downgrades and higher debt costs. This is not just a financial risk, it is a political one, as a government that cannot adapt to technological change will be forced to reckon with the collapse of the economy.
The danger is not that AI will trample Jersey, the danger is that Jersey’s government will refuse to adapt, clinging to its culture of self‑protection while the world changes around it. Currently the appetite for reform is absent, the capability questionable and the stakes existential.
The Island stands at a crossroads. AI will transform finance, law, healthcare, education, logistics, policing and elderly care, and it will reshape office demand and workforce composition. The only question is whether Jersey’s government will embrace this transformation – or whether its refusal to adapt will leave the Island dangerously exposed. And if you think your job is safe – so did the horse!
Ben Shenton is a senior investment director. He is a former politician, Senator, who held positions such as minister, chair of Public Accounts Committee, and chair of Scrutiny. He also assists a number of local charities on an honorary basis
