By Ben Shenton
LAST week, I committed the ultimate Jersey sin: I published some public-sector salaries. Cue the outrage. “How dare he!” cried social media, even though everything I published is in the public domain if you know where to look.
Apparently, transparency is now considered vulgar. But facts don’t care about feelings – and ignoring them won’t stop the economic car crash that’s becoming almost inevitable.
This week, I thought I’d concentrate on how we pay for all the expenditure, the outlook for future income.
Let’s start with the basics: we’re still spending millions on fantasy projects – hare-brained schemes that make you wonder if the government is auditioning for The Apprentice. When someone says, “We’ll look at your plans,” it’s not enthusiasm, it’s code for: “Please stop emailing us.” The government are so naïve they report this to the public as “expressions of interest”. Their primary role is not to be property developers, speculators or private-sector competitors operating with an unfair advantage, it is to provide core services in an effective, efficient and cost-effective manner.
As president of the JSPCA, I know a sick animal when I see one – and our golden goose (the finance sector) has been in poor health for a while. For years, it’s been force-fed so much expensive and unnecessary regulation that it’s now so bloated, it has lost all its agility and is on the danger list.
Our economy leans on personal taxation, and we are all paying more tax as a result. Zero-ten sounded clever at the time, as it kept the golden goose alive, but the result was an income tax rise dressed up as “long-term care”, the introduction of GST, and much higher duties on everything from booze to petrol. With the reduction in tax allowances under “20 means 20” the hardworking public has been squeezed hard.
Meanwhile, finance jobs have flatlined: 13,440 in June 2020, 13,900 in June 2025 – and much of that growth is compliance bloat, not innovation. Worse, the latest Labour Market Report shows banking jobs down 8% and trust administration down 2% in just six months. That’s not a wobble; that’s a warning shot.
Why? Two words: Artificial Intelligence. This isn’t just a buzzword – it’s the containerisation moment for white-collar workers. When shipping went containerised, 150 dock jobs shrank to a dozen, and AI will do similar for finance.
If I were launching a new firm today, I’d hire as few people as possible, and only the best. Why? Because AI and robotic process automation can slash costs considerably. Think KYC checks, AML monitoring, reconciliations, minutes, reporting – all the boring, expensive stuff humans currently do. And the big players know it. JTC’s recent move to private ownership wasn’t just about flexibility; it was about freedom to invest in AI without the quarterly-results circus of public markets. Translation: automation is coming, and headcount will fall. They didn’t say “redundancies will be easier,” but they didn’t need to.
Invest now in technology and profitability can skyrocket through efficiency gains.
So, here’s the uncomfortable truth: finance and legal jobs will decline, as will tax revenue. And unless the public sector goes on a crash diet, we’re heading for a fiscal heart attack. If any public-sector chief officer whines that they can’t deliver quality services on a smaller budget, read it as a confession of: “I’m not up to the job, and am therefore overpaid”. In the private sector, such an admission would result in redundancy.
What’s next? We’ll need wealthy immigrants for their tax contribution – even though many will complain because they think their benefits come from a magic money tree. But let’s be honest: we probably won’t act now, we’ll wait for the car crash before fixing the brakes.
If you don’t believe me read some independent research. Western Asset Management Company is a global fixed-income investment manager headquartered in Pasadena, California, with offices worldwide. They manage hundreds of billions in assets for institutional clients. Their research is widely respected in financial markets because it focuses on macroeconomic trends that affect long-term investment strategies.
Their paper: Ageing Populations and Growing Public Debt Burdens – What Does the Future Hold? examines the structural economic risks posed by demographic change and rising debt.
Sometimes, the most sobering lessons come from outside our shores and their analysis should make every policymaker in Jersey sit up straight. Their conclusion? Ageing populations and rising debt are not just abstract risks – they are structural threats that will choke economic growth and force governments into painful fiscal trade-offs.
Sound familiar? It should. Jersey is a microcosm of these global trends, but with fewer escape routes. Our population is ageing rapidly, pushing the dependency ratio toward unsustainable levels. That means fewer workers, more retirees and soaring costs for healthcare and pensions. Western Asset warns that this demographic shift will erode productivity and strain public finances everywhere.
For Jersey, where our tax base is already narrow and heavily reliant on personal income, the impact will be magnified.
