The angle of attack might change, but the thrust of it tends to remain the same throughout almost all the commentary – at least so far – on Budget 2026. At the core of most comments is the judgement that the Government has lost its grip on spending.
Now at other times, such as in periods of clear economic strength, some would argue that judgement would be less important, although it always becomes a big problem in the end; but in the current context, it is a judgement which is obviously driving considerable controversy and negativity.
Regular JEP readers will be able to cast their minds back to September when the Budget was published. Initially the commentary was all in two areas: the planned health charges, and the government’s proposal to think differently about long-term infrastructure investment, by creating a specific fund to ring-fence planned spending on roads, schools, sports facilities, coastal defences, water treatment and many other essential projects which are all real need of the money.
Those health charges have now just become the subject of an amendment. But in the main, the narrative has shifted completely away from those areas (the normal favourite of impot duty hasn’t been mentioned at all) and squarely onto how much this government is spending, which obviously has knock-on implications for how much it is saving, borrowing and needing to raise in taxation. The “Invest in Jersey” infrastructure proposals haven’t been mentioned since they were launched.
The context is a shrinking economy; ongoing uncertainty over the balance of opportunity/threat in artificial intelligence; and many islanders finding it increasingly difficult to keep up with spiralling prices.
Sieving the issue even further, lying within the judgement that the government is losing its grip on spending, is a perception that it lacks both the necessary toughness, and the political will, to regain it. That its political priorities lie elsewhere. And for commentators who are worried about what the future might look like for the economy, that perception frightens them very deeply.
That’s where this word “prudence” has seized the high-ground of the debate – for those who fear a rainy day is coming, it seems “imprudent” not to be setting more aside, and replenishing reserves, and taking much bigger steps to reduce liabilities, which means costs.
So far, Ministers have lost the initiative in the debate, and not been able to make the case that their plans are really the prudent ones for the island. They have just a week to regain it.
