By Richard Digard
IT’S no secret in Jersey, I guess, that Guernsey gives every appearance of being on the ropes. Its public finances are under extreme pressure, transport links to the island have never been worse (thanks largely to its own airline, Aurigny), the economy is faltering and its States have been incapable of taking decisions to resolve any of these issues over the last four years.
The next election, which might produce an Assembly more capable of finding solutions, is nine months away but already there are grave concerns that Guernsey’s 2020 decision to introduce island-wide voting will make matters worse, not better.
Why? Because treating the whole island as a single electoral district means voters have to select 38 Deputies from a field of more than 100 and thus have very little idea of whom they’re endorsing or what they truly stand for.
Yet from a candidate’s point of view, having a go has never been easier. A no questions asked guaranteed £200,000 plus laptop over the four-year life of the States, no need for any door-to-door campaigning and no difficult questions to face at hustings meetings as there are none. Plus, the entry barrier next year could be quite low, say 5,000 votes.
It’s not a system that appears geared to producing the best results and is teamed with a process that ensures the island’s direction of travel – the Government Work Plan – only emerges around two years after the election. In short, Guernsey electors really have no idea what sort of States they’re voting in.
And if you think that’s a less than satisfactory way to run a £3.4bn economy based on 64,500 people with a government that extracts £874m a year from them to run the island, Jersey’s not that different. As the Electoral Reform Society warned you in an opinion piece in 2022, “even [your new] simplified plurality system will still lead to unfair, distorted results”.
Well, perhaps. But the biggest difference between the islands is demonstrated by their respective Budgets. Yours is directional – aligning available cash with Common Strategic Policy initiatives – while Guernsey’s tends to be reactive, plugging the gap between what committees want to spend and what tax revenues have actually produced.
This shortfall is expected to be particularly pronounced this year. Chief Minister Lyndon Trott has already announced a £16m shortfall from one bank alone and promised a fiscal update by the end of the month (more gloomy news) before the Budget itself on 7 October. Add to that years of underinvestment in public infrastructure and the scene has been set for an especially bad news Budget.
In contrast, Jersey’s proposals appear particularly upbeat. Income tax allowances up £700 to £20,700 (Guernsey’s are just £13,900), other measures to help ordinary Islanders including transitioning to a Living Wage (Guernsey’s been bickering about how low to keep the minimum wage), extending nursery and childcare provision and providing a nutritious school meal for every child in all States primary schools – not something Guernsey does at all. Oh, and top of all that, you have an enviable financial buffer, with the strategic reserve standing at £1.2bn.
Even allowing for the differences in the size of the islands’ economies – £5.8bn plays £3.45bn with States’ revenues showing a similar split of £1.3bn versus £0.8bn in Guernsey – a look at the Budget suggests Jersey has been more prudent in managing its finances than Guernsey.
Yes, some of that may be a legacy from Guernsey scrapping corporation tax earlier than Jersey did and failing to introduce GST after adopting the zero-ten tax reforms. But Jersey’s holding its rate at 5% since 2011 contrasts with an earlier proposal by the other island in 2021 to levy an 8% charge on all goods and services, including food.
Quite apart from the public dislike of GST itself, much of the opposition to it is because no one in Guernsey believes that the States have control of their cost base or can be trusted with taxpayers’ money. Jersey’s Budget reinforces that. Here, the emphasis is on controlling the growth of the civil service, cutting back on consultants and middle management and scrapping posts that have been vacant for too long.
Why are these differences so marked? The key difference is Jersey’s ministerial system combined with States processes that try to bake in some stability of policy direction. A Budget in Guernsey is for one year – yours, announced at the start of last month, is for life. Well, until 2028 at least. And it ties into the Common Strategic Policy.
It may not feel like it for people living here but, at this top level at least, Jersey’s government is more joined up than Guernsey’s. Spending is directed at agreed priorities so when ministers say the focus is on preventing unnecessary expenditure, de-layering public sector management, and reducing reliance on consultants and contractors, there’s every expectation that will be carried through.
Across the water, departmental savings are entirely voluntary. If a committee fails to deliver Budget economies, that’s it. No sanction, no withholding of funds – just another dip into taxpayers’ wallets.
And that’s another difference in the islands’ Budgetary process. Yours was published more than a month ago and will be subject to formal scrutiny by the Corporate Services Panel to see if there’s a reasonable chance it will achieve its aims without too much damage, while delivering value for money. Then it will be debated by the States on 26 November.
As your Deputy Helen Miles, chair of the Corporate Services Scrutiny Panel, says: “It’s absolutely vital that there is a thorough review of how ministers propose to fund the continuation of existing government services as well as the delivery of their ministerial priorities.” That process also includes public pop-up events around the Island, particularly during Democracy Week later this month, as well as going into schools to talk to young people and inviting Islanders to email in comments about the proposals.
Meanwhile in Guernsey, the Budget will be released on 7 October, be subject to no formal scrutiny and then be debated by the Assembly less than a month later on 5 November, with no organised public discussion of its proposals. It will, however, be open to amendment on the day by any two members of the Assembly or any department unhappy with the cash limits they may be subject to.
The contrasts – and the outcomes – of these two very different processes couldn’t be more marked. So, distressing as it is for any Guernsey person to admit, Jersey looks like it knows what it’s doing while Guernsey doesn’t.
