By Nigel Hall
THE ‘unthinkable’ economic impact and humanitarian crisis that would probably follow one ‘trigger’ major international event/crisis today rests on Jersey Government shoulders. Not war coming to Jersey – just the one spark far from Jersey that detonates the regional/global ‘economic earthquake’ and ‘everyone for themselves’ scramble for essential supplies.
I am not the only one worrying that Jersey – like the UK but not like eg Switzerland/Finland/Sweden – is missing the plot, worst-case potentially even akin to 1939/40, in the context of unheeded warnings, and lack of preparation ahead of dire consequences for the population.
Jersey’s resilience should be getting much more drive and attention. I am referring to whole-of-Island and population scale of risk and impact. Resilience is very different to ‘normal’ emergency planning and risks. It is about whole-of-society prevention and preparation, and getting ahead of known serious risks.
There are acute resilience vulnerabilities, eg food and energy supply. There are quick-into-action and relatively cheap mitigation measures to address such risks – simply increase days of on-Island food supplies and diversify energy sources. Getting on for one year after Putin invaded Ukraine, and with food and energy security becoming common topics of conversation, GoJ has yet to take any action that improves Island food and energy resilience.
Jersey has a number of chronic resilience vulnerabilities. Foremost is the lack of understanding and relevant experience in GoJ. There is no resilience doctrine, policy, or register of acute and chronic vulnerabilities. The start point has to be someone with the right experience doing a 360-degree examination across the Island and getting an initial resilience register and action priorities in place.
Jersey has a clear choice. To continue to follow the UK’s ‘just enough and just in time’ resilience profile and risk a humanitarian disaster for Jersey in a situation when every nation looks after itself. Or to immediately change the mindset, and rapidly adjust Jersey’s resilience profile in the direction of the wise countries in Europe.
The world is a tinderbox right now. It just needs the trigger event to set off a cascade of countries seizing their opportunity to take advantage while NATO countries are preoccupied – China/Taiwan; the Middle East, especially Syria; Iran; Israel; Saudi Arabia; and elsewhere, including Serbia, North Korea…
The point for Jersey is that it will be bottom of the scramble for supplies in the ‘global economic earthquake’ following the initial spark that will dwarf the Covid disruption to supply chains. A recent Times article reported that this ‘catastrophic’ scenario is getting serious attention in London.
No one can predict the trigger event (Putin?) or date. Over the last 12 months the risk of an imminent/anytime major disruption to normal trading and supply chains has increased considerably. So far, Jersey has not taken any action to mitigate some of the known worst and immediate impacts of such a regional/global-level event.
GoJ say that it takes resilience very seriously, that it has a robust system in place and that everything is under control.
I beg to differ. After tens of discussions including with key people involved across the key sectors, I have – sadly – concluded that Jersey is not as safe and prepared as it should be.
I have explained my concerns to ministers and the CEO. They have listened. Some like Tom Binet strongly support and get the importance and scale of the problem. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for the chief minister and CEO.
If they did get it they personally would have chaired the right meetings, had discussions with all the key sector figures and a diverse range of experts these last two months. They have failed to grasp that Jersey resilience is more important than the ‘day job’ priorities. It should be an overarching Islandwide strategic priority. It is the ultimate safeguarding responsibility for over 100,000 Islanders.
These are more dangerous times than the Cold War, according to multiple experts – the nuclear threshold is much lower, and the risks are more numerous and complex. How can it be safe and responsible for Jersey to continue with the same ‘just enough and just in time’ resilience profile? Why do we slavishly follow the UK, which is not a resilience exemplar? With our island vulnerabilities, and memory of 1940, when we were abandoned and had to fend for ourselves, we should shift mindset and get in step with the smart and more resilient nations of Europe.
A significant vindication of my campaign to improve Jersey’s resilience is the UK’s recent launch of its National Resilience Framework. It covers a raft of initiatives and is a ‘whole of government’ game-changer. It is bigger and more significant than the civil defence programme launched at the start of the Cold War, which was focused on the one risk of strategic nuclear attack. The NRF is multi-risk focused in a much more inter-connected and complex world.
Jersey resilience is about sensible preparation and getting in front of known risks. With our island vulnerabilities we should be ahead, not behind, the UK. We have lost several months’ preparation time. We need to get on the front foot.
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Nigel Hall is a former British Army brigadier, policy and strategic adviser in UK delegations at HQ United Nations and HQ Nato, founder of NewBletchley strategic network.
