By Nigel Hall
JERSEY must rapidly improve its resilience in the face of growing global and European-scale risks which could pose unprecedented potential disruption to normal living, economic and trading activities, and supply chains. ‘Just enough, and just in time’ as the basis of our economy can no longer be relied upon to keep Jersey safe.
Today, Jersey is less resilient than ever before in its history in terms of food production and storage of essential supplies in the Island. The best prepared European nations (including Switzerland and Finland) hold three to six months months of strategic reserves of essential food, pharmaceuticals and other critical stocks.
Jersey is among the least prepared European jurisdictions. Essential food and day-to-day life supplies and essential public services could not be maintained much beyond one week in Jersey in the event of a major sustained disruption to normal supply chains. And unlike most European jurisdictions which have multiple supply chain and transport links, Jersey is reliant on just one route – Portsmouth/UK – for almost all of its supplies.
Since the end of the Cold War the Island’s emergency planning has been based almost entirely upon dealing with a major incident in the Island, and on the assumption that whatever external assistance was urgently required this would come from UK, or in some limited cases, from France.
This assumption that we can always rely upon outside assistance in all crisis scenarios no longer holds true. We must face the new reality and be prepared for new worst-case situations where UK-France wide, or European, or global-level disruption to supply chains and normal economic activity impacts us in Jersey as a result of a major natural or man-made crisis, or breakdown of critical national infrastructures.
We must face today’s risks and threats responsibly. While hoping for the best outcomes, we need to plan for new reasonable worst-case scenarios occurring well away from us but very rapidly impacting Jersey (war, first major WMD/cyber/infrastructure attack, new/more lethal pandemic, Chernobyl-plus disaster, devastating constriction of Chinese goods and trade, catastrophic natural/weather event knocking out energy grids…).
Resilience by definition is not a government-only affair. A small government like ours can – and will – set out the vision, direction of travel, priorities, and make the necessary public resources available. But every sector of our community and economy and every Islander has a responsibility and role in this common endeavour to safeguard our community too.
A lesson that we learnt during Covid is that Jersey should not always wait for UK to act first. With regard to resilience, our geography and island dynamics demand that we act in time. The basis of Jersey Resilience Planning and Resourcing should switch to being able to maintain essential daily living and public services from stocks for 28 days in the event of major disruption to supply chains.
Here is an initial tranche of measures and policies that should be considered:
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Reintroducing some former era contingency preparations, including 28 days’ stocks of essential food, pharmaceuticals, fuels, and critical spares.
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Reintroducing warehousing to provide turnover/buffer food and supplies as part of 28 days overall stock levels.
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Re-establishing a contingency bakery on the Island able to provide bread and other essential baked food.
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Incentivising diversification of supply chains, establishing active and reserve/assured/robust French sourcing and supply of certain products.
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Enhancing inter-Channel Islands trade and cooperation, including in time of crisis with new mutual aid and assistance protocols.
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Accelerating plans and incentives to switch to green renewable energy and fuels and ending energy-dependency from off the Island as soon as possible.
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Significantly increasing and incentivising essential agriculture and horticulture food production in the Island coupled with Jersey fishing in order to enhance food security and help meet net-zero targets and better protect the environment.
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Tasking every sector of our community and economy to appoint leaders to represent their sector and engage with the government and other stakeholders.
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Tapping the ideas and brainpower across Jersey, including with high value prize competitions for the best ideas selected that enhance Jersey’s resilience.
In stark contrast to the last government and its ‘dither and delay’ handling at the critical stages of the Covid emergency, this initiative would represent a thoroughly responsible determination to get upstream of events and demonstrate ‘crisis-ready competent leadership’.
Jersey safety and security is the first duty of government.
Making Jersey more resilient in today’s ‘real and more insecure world’ would be in the ‘Jersey exemplar’ cross-island super fast broadband category of wise and prudent decision-making.
Increasing food production, energy provision and storage in the Island will turbo charge Jersey’s green, net zero, environment, and sustainability outcomes. It will enhance economic diversification and employment opportunities. This will be popular with a growing, already significant, proportion of islanders and electorate.
It will, in particular, better safeguard the vulnerable within Jersey society who – as we learnt during Covid – are the most disadvantaged section of society and likely to become a major focus of emergency support during a major sustained crisis.
The Covid Panel Report Recommendations and chief executive-led emergency planning and crisis management response programme should be expedited.
An independent ‘red team’ audit of Jersey’s Resilience and plans should take place in 12 months.
The government should not be expected to fund everything. We should start to canvass ideas for private sector, public-private partnership, and other innovative funding options.
Modest Jersey Contingency (strategic reserve) Fund contributions to enhance Jersey Resilience may prove to be a timely and pertinent first major call upon the fund.
Preparing for difficult times and worst-case scenarios is not easy. History tells us that the (understandable) default setting of wishful thinking and delay is usually the worst of alternative courses of action at such moments.
It is time for Jersey to rapidly improve its resilience and to make this task an all-island strategic priority. It must unscramble the paradox that Jersey is one of Europe’s richest jurisdictions, much more vulnerable than most to external major economic and supply chain disruptions, and yet continues to rely upon an inadequate resilience ‘insurance policy’, and pays among the lowest (‘home and contents’/resilience insurance) premiums in Europe.
The government has the primary responsibility for Island security and prosperity. But it is only one leg of the resilience three-legged stool. Community and economy sector leaders and Island population represent the other two legs. All three legs have to work as one. The States Assembly should hold an early debate on this most vital of issues. The government deserves overwhelming support if, as recommended, it makes improved Jersey resilience a strategic priority. If necessary, it should not hesitate to seek all-island support via a referendum – before the end of the year.
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Nigel Hall is a former British Army Brigadier, policy and strategic adviser in UK delegations at HQ United Nations and HQ NATO, founder of NewBletchley strategic network.
