The UK is at “half-time in extra time” in tackling Covid-19 but the final whistle may come in the spring, England’s deputy chief medical officer has said.
Professor Jonathan Van-Tam urged people to be cautious in the winter and over the Christmas period but suggested easier times could be just a few months away.
He said: “Christmas, and indeed all of the darker winter months, are potentially going to be problematic, and I think the things that are really going to determine this are, first of all, human behaviours and caution over the winter months, but particularly in the next couple of months if you’re talking about Christmas, so it’s how cautious we are.
“The next one is how well the vaccination programmes go.”
On whether the UK is at “half-time in the game”, he said: “I would say we’re kind of half-time in extra time, and I think the final whistle in terms of – I can’t predict it – but my personal view is that we’ve got a few more months to run, and I think we’ll be in a much calmer set of waters by spring.
Prof Van-Tam said it is still the case that “too many people believe that this pandemic is now over”, adding: “I personally feel there are some hard months to come in the winter and it’s not over.
“I think a whole range of behaviours, including the use of face coverings, but generally the caution that people take or don’t take in terms of interacting with each other – that is going to be a big determinant in what happens between now and the kind of darkest months of the winter.
“The other things that are going to be really important are how people respond if they are in need of a booster, if they are in need of flu vaccine, if they are partially vaccinated, or indeed if they are unvaccinated – that will be another really important factor in terms of what happens over the next few months.”
He added: “It’s of concern to scientists that we are running this hot this early in the autumn season.
“And so, from that perspective, I’m afraid it’s caution, followed by caution, and we need to watch these data very carefully indeed over the next days and weeks.”
Turning specifically to the figures, Prof Van-Tam said hospital admissions have plateaued in the last four days, while there has been a small drop in the number of patients being treated for Covid-19 on wards.
“What that tells me is that we have to just wait and see a bit longer – this could be a pause before things go up, it could be the very first signs that things are beginning to stabilise but at a high rate,” he said.
“But my worry is that the deaths are increasing and that shows that the infection is now starting to penetrate into those older age groups.
“And that’s why the really key thing is that if you are called for your booster, if you are called for your flu vaccine, please go and get them – this could be really very important this winter, it is not the time to be complacent.”
Prof Van-Tam urged the NHS and the Government to make it clearer to people when their booster shot may be coming up, adding it is not yet known if people will need repeat boosters in the future.
He said “of course everyone wants to go faster” on the booster programme, “but we are now picking up really quite considerable momentum”.
Prof Van-Tam said decisions on making face masks mandatory in England is a question for ministers, including in places such as the House of Commons, adding: “I don’t think I’m in a position to judge every single type of interaction that occurs in any work premises, including the House of Commons.”
He added: “I can see that they could be quite inhibitory to the natural expressions of learning in children involving speech and facial expression. I think it’s difficult for children in schools with face masks.”
It comes as Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, announced he had quit the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) at the end of October.
Sir Jeremy said he was stepping down to focus on his work at the Wellcome Trust, but added: “The Covid-19 crisis is a long way from over, with the global situation deeply troubling.
“The high levels of transmission seen in the UK remain concerning, but I stepped down as a participant of Sage knowing ministers had been provided with most of the key science advice needed over the winter months.”
Amid speculation that Sir Jeremy was unhappy with the way ministers handle scientific advice, Prof Van-Tam said he does not “read any more signal” into the resignation other than he wants to concentrate on other work.
He added: “It’s a tribute to Sir Jeremy and so many other scientists that they have supported us so hard and for so long and given such invaluable, independent advice.”
