JERSEY’S housing stock will not meet the needs of Islanders over the next three years – with a surplus of family homes and too few smaller properties amid a trend of declining birthrates and reduced demand for large houses, new figures have revealed.
A report into projected housing needs between 2026 and 2028, published yesterday by Statistics Jersey, found there will be a 1,500 shortfall in one- and two-bed properties, at the same time as a 1,200 surplus in larger three- and four-bed homes.
The type of smaller property with the largest shortfall was two-bedroom houses, with 800 less available than needed to meet the expected demand between this year and 2028.
It also found that, over this period, there will be a surplus of around 500 four-bedroom houses available that people are not looking to buy, and a slight surplus of three-bedroom houses.
The report stated that this continues a trend which is seeing less Islanders looking to buy larger properties – which have traditionally been bought by families with children needing more space.
While the latest figures show that the property type with the largest supply was one-bedroom flats, most areas of property transaction, whether that be owner-occupied, social rental, qualified rental or non-qualified accommodation, will see shortfalls in both one and two-bedroom flats.
The report stated this is “largely due to individuals moving to these from non-qualified accommodation, once they become entitled or form a household with someone who has housing qualifications”. It warned that if this is not addressed, the supply of non-qualified properties will be lower, because the Islanders with newly-qualified status trying to get qualified properties will have to stay in the non-qualified ones.
The sector with the largest shortfall in two-bedroom houses is the ‘owner-occupier’ – those looking to buy – with 640 less available than are projected to be needed.
Is it as bad as it seems?
The figures are based on what Islanders said their housing intentions were in the 2025 Jersey Opinions and Lifestyle Survey, and the number of people who said they would like to buy a property is not the same as those who can afford to.
There were 4,330 households that were estimated to be planning to purchase either their first property or an additional one. Of those, one in seven intended to get a mortgage, although the figures suggest that not all of those earn enough to do so.
By removing those people from the calculations, shortfall for two-bedroom homes available to buy lowered considerably to 270.
Social housing and non-qualified accommodation were only slightly affected, which the report put down to individuals being unable to move out of one-bedroom and two-bedroom properties respectfully, while the shortfall of qualified rental properties increased from 120 to 450 units, primarily in two-bedroom units.
The report did however add that some households that it removed from its calculations in this further analysis, would be able to afford their desired property with assistance either through the assisted purchase pathway or from family members.
What are the effects of migration?
The figures in the report were based on the assumption that net migration will be at a level that would see 400 people moving to the Island each year, although this figure can change in reality.
Net migration – the difference between the number of people moving to and leaving Jersey – has been an additional 380 on average over the past decade.
While the report stated changes to this would not follow the trend, Statistics Jersey measured what effect different levels of net migration would have and found it would primarily affect non-qualified properties, and one-bedroom ones in particular.
Because those moving to Jersey cannot rent qualified dwellings or purchase a property for ten years unless they join a household that already has residential qualifications, migration has little effect on shortfalls in these sectors.
Therefore, migration levels mainly affect one-bedroom properties that are non-qualified being rented by those with a registered status who have just moved to the Island.
If, for example, net migration increases to +600, the calculations show that there would be a considerable shortfall of 640 non-qualified one-bedroom flats.
The report also highlighted that Islanders leaving Jersey can have an affect on the supply of housing with it contributing to more than a third (36%) of available two-bedroom houses.
