IT HAS been just over three years since the States Assembly approved the Carbon Neutral Roadmap in response to the “climate emergency” it declared in 2019.
The 163-page document outlined a number of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, all with the target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, in line with commitments made under the Paris Agreement.
While Environment Minister Steve Luce said the Island was making “good progress” towards its carbon-neutral goals earlier this year, the publication of new stats about Jersey’s emissions have led a local think tank to warn that the Island’s commitment to reduce emissions “cannot be achieved”.
What do the latest statistics say?
Published in June, the latest Jersey Greenhouse Gas Inventory Guide – commissioned by the government’s Cabinet Office and produced by environmental consultants Aether at a cost of £4,451 – provides estimates for emissions of greenhouse gases from 1990 until 2023.
It documents an overall decrease in the Island’s emissions of around 0.2% between 2022 and 2023, which followed a decrease of around 2.9% between 2021 and 2022.
Since 1990, local emissions have decreased by more than 47%, partially driven by a reduction in energy supply sector emissions as a result of increased electricity imports from France.
The transport sector was Jersey’s largest source of emissions in 2023 (43.4%), with the business (19%), residential (14.3%) and energy supply (13.9%) sectors among the other main contributors.
The Paris Agreement
While the stats show the Island’s emissions appear to be decreasing, Policy Centre Jersey – which prepares research papers on matters of local interest – says the pace suggests that Jersey is unlikely to meet its environmental targets.
The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change with the
aim to limit global warming to below 2°C.
It was adopted by 196 parties in December 2015 and the UK’s ratification was extended in May 2022 to include Jersey.
Ahead of the 2050 milestone, Jersey has an interim target of reducing emissions by 68% by 2030 and 78% by 2035, measured against a 1990 baseline.
“Too small to have any effect”
However, a new paper published by the Policy Centre claims that the 2030 target “cannot be achieved”.
“This would require an annual 6.8% reduction in emissions whereas the figures for the two most [recent] years for which figures are available are 2.9% in 2022 and 0.2% in 2023,” the paper said.
This, the Policy Centre claimed, was because “no measures have been adopted which could significantly reduce emissions”.
Among the measures introduced so far are a subsidy for electric vehicles and a low carbon heating incentive.
But the Policy Centre said “the incentives to buy electric vehicles and to decarbonise boilers have been too small to have any effect”, while they noted that a States decision to freeze fuel duty had “had the opposite effect”.
Speaking to the JEP, Policy Centre Jersey senior adviser Sir Mark Boleat added: “We are not saying whether the targets are a good or bad thing – what we are saying is that there is a clear, legally-binding target, no steps have been taken to achieve it and this is not satisfactory.”
He continued: “Now if somebody said, ‘Ok, what would need to be done to achieve the targets?’ that would be a separate exercise and you would set out options, which I have to say would be unpalatable – because the main one would be to increase the tax on fuel considerably.”
“Like all nations this is challenging”
Responding to the observations of the Policy Centre, Deputy Luce admitted that Jersey’s emissions reduction strategy was “ambitious”.
“Like all nations this is challenging,” he continued. “However, playing our part in reducing global emissions is necessary to demonstrate that we are a responsible jurisdiction and must play our part in addressing climate change.
“The electric vehicle purchase incentive and the low carbon heating incentive were both launched during 2023; the initial impact of these schemes, which have the largest CNR budgets for 2022-2025, is not expected to be strongly evident in our GHG data before 2024.”
Deputy Luce noted that transport “remains our largest emissions sector”.
He added: “Between 2022 and 2023, all transport activity categories saw a reduction, other than domestic aviation and fishing.
“This confirms that we are moving in the right direction, in line with the overall decline in fuel sales.
“We continue to offer the low carbon heating Incentive to support Islanders wanting to replace fossil fuel heating systems. Funding levels were revised at the end of 2024 to better reflect the choice of technologies, we now offer up to £15,000 to low income households to ensure everyone is able to participate in the net-zero transition.”
