A FEARED mass wave of flu this winter has failed to materialise – but the Island could be hit hard in 2023, the deputy medical officer of health has said.
Last summer, health experts in the UK warned that lower levels of immunity caused by extensive isolation at the height of the pandemic could leave people vulnerable to the seasonal virus.
Some warned that the flu season could be one of the worst on record, and could even pose more of a threat than Covid.
But Dr Ivan Muscat said that just 16 cases of flu had been confirmed through testing of around 2,000 samples at the General Hospital’s pathology laboratories so far this flu season.
The number of confirmed cases was also matched by low levels of flu-like illness reported by patients at GP surgeries, Dr Muscat said.
He added: ‘The amount of flu-like illness has been among the lowest seen in recent years, and the figure for lab-confirmed cases has been exceptionally low.
‘We’ve had a lot of Covid and that seems to have influenced flu activity.’
Graphs published by Public Health show that across the previous three winter seasons, the average number of confirmed cases in Jersey was between three and ten per week at the height of the flu season between early January and the middle of March.
The picture in Jersey is similar to the UK’s, with the UK Health Security Agency noting in its weekly report of 17 February that ‘laboratory indicators suggest that influenza activity is very low’.
Dr Muscat said that the uptake for flu vaccination had been increased following a drive in the autumn to encourage at-risk Islanders to protect themselves against both flu and Covid-19.
Coverage among target groups has increased during this flu season. By the start of January, approximately 83% of Islanders aged 65 and over had received a flu jab, compared with the 2020/21 season, when 75% had been vaccinated by the start of December and 78% received a jab prior to the end of the winter.
This flu-vaccination programme has also been widened as a result of concerns that the Island’s healthcare system could have been hit by high levels of cases of flu and Covid-19. Those aged 50 to 64 were offered free flu jabs, with 52% of them receiving the vaccine this winter by the start of January.
Although he said it was difficult to establish why flu levels had been low so far, Dr Muscat said it was possible that Islanders’ greater caution about mixing and basic hygiene measures as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic may have contributed, in addition to the success of the vaccination programme. He warned that the winter flu season was not yet over, but was likely to tail off in the coming weeks.
Looking ahead to the 2022/23 winter flu season, Dr Muscat said it would be important to remain vigilant against flu.
He said: ‘As we go towards next winter, if flu is going to circulate then it may find a lower degree of immunity because of the low levels from the previous two winters, and so the risk could be greater.
‘In anticipation of this, and acknowledging that vaccination remains the best form of protection, we will again be encouraging a high flu-vaccine update before next winter.’
