TAX rises are not the solution to Jersey’s ageing population problems, an Assistant Chief Minister has said – as islanders in Guernsey are being warned that millions in revenue is needed to tackle the issue.
Deputy Rowland Huelin called Jersey’s increasingly unbalanced dependency ratio – the number of people aged over 65 or under 16 compared to the number of people aged between 16 and 64 – one of the ‘biggest problems we face’.
The St Peter Deputy, who has responsibility for population, recently published the government’s Common Population Policy, which he described as a ‘pukka piece of work’.
Speaking ahead of a States debate on the policy, he ruled out tax increases to fund burgeoning health and social care costs: ‘That is not within the culture of Jersey. We have to find other ways to do it.
‘The population policy is not working towards a solution of increased taxes.’
The States of Guernsey has faced a backlash over its PR offensive to persuade islanders to accept higher taxes, according to the Guernsey Press, with thousands of leaflets delivered to households this week explaining the aim to plug an anticipated black hole in government finances.
Deputy Huelin said the solution to an ageing population and reliance on migration was instead to improve productivity, which could include Islanders working into later life and switching careers multiple times.
Jersey’s dependency ratio stands at 58% and could rise to 81% by 2065 if the government pursued a net-zero migration policy, something outlined as a long-term goal by Deputy Huelin and Chief Minister John Le Fondré.
As the ratio approached 81%, it would have wide-ranging implications for the ability of the Island to pay for health and social care for its ageing population, with fewer taxpayers, and would ultimately lead to the fund which pays for this running dry.
According to the policy, a net-zero aim would mean: ‘Between 2025 and 2065, the number of people aged 65 and above is forecast to increase by more than one-third, while the number of working-age people reduces by 18%. Without major changes to the economy or reductions in government benefits and services, this would require significant higher tax and/or social security contributions for workers and businesses.’
Deputy Huelin admitted this could lead to a ‘huge burden on those working to pay the taxes, in order to support the commitments that we have as a government’, but said that low taxation had been key to Jersey’s success.
‘We have got to ensure that we improve the productivity of the people that we have,’ said Deputy Huelin. ‘It is equally about people taking personal responsibility as the government. And this is why my call is, please Jersey, this is not a government population policy, this is the whole Island’s population policy. This is a call for everybody to play their part.’
Deputy Huelin said he was opposed to further mandatory rises in the pension age but added: ‘I think people want to work longer. I do not want to see a situation where people are forced to work longer.’
The government has come in for criticism for releasing a policy which lacks up-to-date data, with the results of last year’s census expected back next month, but the assistant minister could not be pinned down on a potential ballpark figure for Jersey’s population and whether it has grown or shrunk recently.
Deputy Huelin said: ‘The census is independent to government, so we cannot do anything about asking for it now. The other thing is when it arrives it comes in bits and pieces. You do not get the full report.’
