Consultants commissioned by the government have outlined a rise in the Island’s old-age dependency ratio, which measures the number of people of working age for each older Islander.
Since 2010, the ratio has risen from 21% to almost 26% in 2019, with the latest figure equating to around four people of working age for each older Islander.
The report by PwC, which forms part of the government’s flagship future economy programme, states that the extent of future rises in the dependency ratio across the next 50 years will vary according to the extent of migration:
- A policy of ‘net-nil’ migration would see the workforce shrink by a fifth by 2070, with the old-age dependency ratio climbing sharply to 57%.
- An annual figure of 325 new migrants would leave the workforce at a similar level as it is today, but with a dependency ratio of 51%.
- If 700 new migrants arrived per year, the ratio would increase to 46%, while a migration figure of 1,500 would create a ratio of 38%.
The ageing of the Island’s population is expected to accelerate in the future, with an increase in life expectancy combined with a fall in fertility rate over the past three decades.
In 1993 the fertility rate was 12.5 children for every 1,000 Islanders, falling to 8.8 in 2018, the latest figure being one-fifth lower than the UK rate.
The report highlights labour force participation as a sign of the vitality of an economy, with Jersey’s rate of participation having fallen and currently showing that 67% of those aged 15 to 64 are classed as participants. This figure ranks Jersey below the equivalent mark in the UK (79%) and across developed nations (72%).
Policies to increase the participation of society in the workforce form part of the report, with the authors stating that raising the pension age would not be a sufficient measure in itself.
Further policies to be considered include incentives for older workers, relating to tax breaks and more flexible working, a greater emphasis on training and the promotion of active lifestyles for older employees.
The report adds that the government, as the Island’s largest employer, should take a lead in moves to boost the level of participation in the workforce.
The stated aim of the future economy programme is ‘a sustainable, vibrant and inclusive future economy’, as set out in the Government Plan. This includes five cornerstone objectives:
- An economy operating within environmental limits.
- Businesses which are productive and resilient.
- Households which are resilient and share in growth.
- Strong Island identity and international reputation for quality products and services.
- A highly-skilled workforce equipped for the jobs of the future.
