Ministers are working on the basis that the population will rise by around 800 people a year between 2020 and 2024, about half the rate of growth seen in the past three years.
Deputy John Young said that it was likely that the lion’s share of new homes would have to be built in town, on newly reclaimed land or within existing residential areas. The minister said that it would be necessary to build some properties on green-field sites to ‘meet demand’ and ‘help support parish communities’.
And he said that there would be special protection for coastal and countryside areas.
Deputy Young made the comments in his department’s ‘preferred strategy’ document which sets out the assumptions on which the new Island Plan, which will set planning policy between 2022 and 2024.
The Island Plan usually sets policy for ten years, with the current one running from 2011 to 2021. However this year, given the impact and uncertainty caused by the pandemic, it has been decided to agree a so-called ‘bridging’ plan and return to the ten-year in 2024.
A draft version of the bridging Island Plan is due t be released for a 12-week consultation early next year. It will seek to find a balance between calls for more affordable homes and environmental and other concerns. That debate is et against the background of report of Jersey facing a housing crisis. Last year, it was reported that a total of 7000 new homes – equivalent to adding an entire new small town – would be needed in Jersey in the next decade. The JEP has printed the stories of many Islanders who are stuck in inappropriate accommodation, some living in cramped accommodation with relatives, because they cannot afford their own home.
The strategy document bases its population growth slow-down assumption of modelling taking into account the impact of new Brexit-related migration controls and a slowdown in the economy as a result of the pandemic. Migration is expected to reduce by 50%.
The strategy adds that the previous Island Plan was based upon the incorrect assumption that the population would increase by an average of 325 people per year. In the past three years, the average has been around 1,350.
It says that as a result there is currently a need for 1,800 homes – mostly three- and four-bedroom family properties. There is also, the report states, a significant need for homes in the unqualified sector.
The document warns that the government must be ‘responsive’ in meeting the demand for housing, otherwise it risks exacerbating and ‘bottlenecking’ the situation into future Island Plans.
The strategy also suggests the reclassification of some green-zone sites which lie around built-up areas but includes a pledge to protect the Island’s most sensitive coastal and countryside areas. In line with this, a review of the Coastal National Park area, green zone policy and marine zone policies are due to take place.
Kevin Pilley, director of planning policy, said the government had been forced to develop an interim plan based on assumptions, rather than a ten-year plan, owing to the significant uncertainty over the future.
‘One of the key pieces of information we used was one showing what happened during the last significant economic downturn that Jersey experienced. In Jersey, migration and economic performance are quite closely correlated. When the economy goes into recession, migration tends to decline and we can look at the previous pattern from 2008,’ he said.
‘We have then considered the forthcoming challenges and made an estimate based on that. So it is based on the best information available and the understanding of that will be updated around Brexit as we understand what the outcome of negotiations will be.
‘Quite consciously, we have chosen to do a short plan because of the uncertainty that we have. It is a recognition of the difficulty we have as a government, as all governments do, in making long-term decisions at such a point of uncertainty.’
According to the plan, in order to provide space for homes to be built on, land could be reclaimed.
However, Mr Pilley added that the inclusion of reclamation within the plan did not necessarily mean that it would go ahead – just that it would be viewed more favourably during future planning decisions.
‘The report does not set out any areas where that would be appropriate. It just details how there may be a shift from the current plan where there is an assumption against reclamation,’ he said.
‘What we are saying is that, in the future, if there was an appropriate provision or appropriate scheme could be brought forward, the plan, if approved, would look more favourably upon that, given the longer-term challenges around accommodating housing and other Island needs sustainably without challenging the green zone.’
The draft Island plan is due to be published for 12 weeks’ consultation in March 2021 before being debated by the States Assembly, following an independent inspection, early in 2022.
