Dr Ivan Muscat, the Island’s deputy medical officer for health, again stressed that social distancing – reducing close human-to-human contact with people outside of your household – was a key tactic in cutting the number of potential deaths in the Island. It is estimated it could reduce deaths by 35%.
During a briefing with the media yesterday, Dr Muscat explained the government was intent on containing the virus’s spread, reducing the infection rate by delaying the spread and shielding the vulnerable and ensuring adequate treatment was available to those who do need it.
Dr Muscat said the government was using data to predict how social changes such as closing schools and social distancing could ‘flatten the curve’ and ensure the number of people who contract COVID-19 and need hospital treatment is spread over a longer period – giving the health service a chance to cope and save more lives. He stressed the analysis was ‘not a crystal ball’ but could give a good indication of what is to come.
According to the data, on its own, only the measure of ensuring Islanders adhered to social distancing – reducing human-to-human contact by 75% – took the predicted number of cases of COVID-19 needing hospital care below the line of available hospital beds at any one time.
All other measures – including closing schools for three months, home isolation for seven days for those with symptoms and whole household quarantine – helped to flatten the curve in isolation but not sufficiently enough to take the number of cases requiring hospital treatment below the line for the number of beds.
Dr Muscat explained that there was no solid data to show the effect when all mitigating measures are utilised together – as is being done in Jersey at the moment – but it was reasonable to assume they would only further flatten the curve and reduce the impact on the health service.
