Housing remains a major issue for States

From Paul Le Claire.

BOTH candidates for Chief Minister referred to the current housing crisis in their election statements.

Senator Sir Philip Bailhache said: ‘The rate of home ownership at some 60% is too low and urgent steps should be taken to create affordable housing and the means to get on the housing ladder.’ Senator Ian Gorst, said: ‘While the high level of property prices has brought financial gain to many, it has put the traditional three bedroom house, approaching £500,000, out of reach of most young people.’

While I sincerely applaud their call for action I would respectfully caution them both. Firstly the level of home ownership in Jersey is actually 52% not 60% this is based upon our latest published data from the 2007 Housing Needs Survey. I don’t know where the figure of 60% comes from, perhaps it is Guernsey as Guernsey owner-occupiers are 62% of their local market.

Based on the 2007 survey and the number of households at year-end 2007 the 52% owner-occupier households corresponded to 19,700 households out of a total of 37,900.

If the owner-occupier percentage is 60% then this would correspond to a total of 22,700 owner-occupier households. That is: the 60% assumption corresponds to assuming an additional 3,000 owner-occupier households. Using the mean number of people per household (2.33 over all tenures in 2007 but is higher for owner-occupiers alone) implies that the 60% assumption corresponds to assuming at least an additional 7,000 people living in owner-occupied accommodation.

These are estimates based on the most recent published results from 2011. So if we believe 60% is correct we have missed at least 3,000 houses and 7,000 people.

With only 400 houses per year approved in the Island plan it will take at least seven and a half years, to build that many units, if we don’t have any more people being born here or migrating here.

Your readers may recall it was I and your newspaper, which revealed the independent research that demonstrated the States had failed miserably, to keep to its population targets of inward migrants at the level agreed by the States.

In addition, the Island Plan and all of its policies, was modelled to cater for an increase of 350 inward migrants per annum, when we had actually been experiencing double that number.

It simply planned for half of the numbers that were arriving, have you ever tried doing that for a dinner party? There was simply an increase in population of 700 inward migrants per annum over the last three published years. 700 additional people a year, as those who left had been counted also.

This number of new migrants, 2,100, did not include those born over those who died, (births over deaths) which added another 270 each and every year, to our population, giving us an annual total of 970 more people in Jersey for three consecutive years. 2,100 additional migrants, when we were aiming at no more than 1,050.

The Council of Ministers were out by 1,050 migrants, in just three short years. The reason they originally chose 350 inward migrants per year was because that kept the population below 100,000 in the long term.

This is not to say we should not have new Islanders coming to Jersey nor should this letter detract from Sir Philip’s valuable statement, which shows he cares and wants to do something about housing and home ownership in particular.

I wanted these things too, when I debated my proposal on the 2 March this year but States Members voted against my proposal to introduce policies to make housing more affordable in Jersey. I still cannot believe they did so, 24 votes Contre (against) to 21 votes Pour (for), check out the States’ Hansard for 2 March 2011 to see who they were.

Senator Gorst is also to be congratulated on recognising the problem in his statement but he overstates the cost of the average price of a three bedroom house. The average house price in Jersey in Q2 2011 was £437,000 and not £500, 000.

Meanwhile the States housing waiting list is also increasing as predicted, it now stands at a minimum of 974 people, of which a minimum number of 469, are children.

The average waiting period for a three bedroom house in this sector, which represents some of the most vulnerable in our community, is an alarming 18 months. In 2007 that wait was only three months. That is a 15 month increase in just four years. States tenants paid £23 Million in profits from their rents last year alone.

I have asked why aren’t we building more houses to stimulate our economy while that is desperately needed, and un-employment levels are so high, instead of continuing to subsidise private landlords, many of which are paying for their UK pensions out of our Island wages in rents.

Private rental subsidy is currently costing the States in excess of £10.5 million a year, which arguably, could be much better spent, on developing our own stock for the identified needs of the community.