Searching for signs in statistics

A case in point is the latest announcement on the number of people employed in the Island. At almost 57,000, the figure is the highest since records began 15 years ago. The statistics also show that the number employed in the private sector has risen by 840 over the course of the past year and that the size of the public sector workforce has fallen by 100 over the same period.

Meanwhile, finance industry employment has risen by 50 over the past 12 months. This is the first increase recorded for more than two years, though total employment in the sector is hundreds short of the maximum recorded rate.

But what do the figures – and complementary unemployment figures, which are at or around record levels ¬– actually signify?

The optimistically inclined will say that they mean that the economy is growing and that we are at last putting the crippling effects of the recession behind us. Those inclined towards less favourable interpretations might say that an increase of 740 people in work during a 12-month period could also point to a substantial increase in the population.

But in spite of broad uncertainties, a limited number of reasonably firm conclusions can be drawn from the new figures and events correlated with them. It is, for instance, apparent that Waitrose’s Island operations have led to the creation of new job opportunities. Equally, the loss of 100 people from the public sector payroll indicates that the programme of voluntary redundancies that is part of government’s cost-cutting drive is taking effect.

Quite rightly, Economic Development Minister Alan Maclean has reacted cautiously to the latest data, though he describes them as ‘encouraging’. He will doubtless be aware that other positive signs will be required before anyone is able to conclude that economic recovery is well and truly under way.

These signs might well appear, and nowadays they are unlikely to go undetected thanks to the comprehensive efforts of the States Statistics Unit and the office of the States economic adviser.