How is it that Guernsey, or even the Isle of Man, are in considerably better shape?

I would rather think of myself as the minister’s critical friend who’s frustrated because he is following policies which I accept have fairly broad support but with which I do not agree. It’s not his fault. He’s doing what many in the Island want him to do, and what his colleagues on the Council of Ministers have pushed him into doing. They should be satisfied, although a fact of life is that he can’t please everyone or, apparently, even a large chunk of them.

My criticism is limited to the haste with which the Council of Ministers has tackled the Island’s financial problems. That doesn’t mean I don’t think they should be dealt with. It simply means that the solutions should have been applied over a longer period – five years, not three – which would have avoided some of the rushed and ill-thought through measures which I think will damage the Island. I hate to mention it, but Guernsey has managed to delay unpalatable decisions.

Taking more time might well have required other measures to tide us over while something as dramatic as restructuring the whole of the public sector took place. I don’t think borrowing a modest amount to help us with problems caused by the Great Recession is unreasonable, although I’m not convinced that the money could not have been found in other ways.

This is all tied up with another popular policy with which I do not agree, but which the Council of Ministers has enthusiastically adopted. It’s the idea that one of our major problems is the size of the public sector and that what we really need to do to solve our financial problems is to aim for small government and to ‘live within our means’. This is normally illustrated with homely little similes about housekeeping and not raiding the pension to pay for everyday expenses, but most of it is complete tosh.

I admit it’s quite a seductive argument, though. The Island’s financial problems are largely caused by us spending too much money (not true), so that all we have to do is slim down the public service, lose a few staff (well quite a few actually), and the budget will then balance and we will have a leaner, fitter government. If only.

My unpopular view is that there is simply no evidence that Jersey’s government is too big, and there is certainly no evidence of significant waste. Cutting the size of government would not only damage the public sector but have an impact on our ability to get out of recession. Looking to what has happened in Ireland and Greece as a warning signal for why we shouldn’t borrow is also crazy. It is certainly a warning not to borrow too much, but it’s not an argument for not borrowing at all.

So as I said in last week’s column (not published until Monday due to technical gremlins), it’s the over-reaction and the failure to maintain a sense of proportion that I am most critical of.

Be that as it may, the representatives of the people have made their decisions and we have to make the best of it. We certainly have to do all we can to bolster confidence in Jersey’s future, which is not in plentiful supply.

Unfortunately blind faith alone will not secure our future, and there’s a lot to be done. My prediction is that the next big talking point will be to what extent the problems facing the Island are due to the recession and how much is due to failed or failing policies. For example, how is it that Guernsey, or even the Isle of Man, seem to have come out of the recession in considerably better shape than Jersey?

I obviously believe that more attention should have been paid to promoting economic growth rather than the near-obsession with cuts, but that’s water under the bridge. Hopefully now that a framework for cuts has been agreed, a little more time can be devoted to economic policy, but this may be a vain hope.

Certainly with the axe continuing to hover over zero-ten, more effort needs to go into developing new markets and new services which are not totally reliant on tax. We also don’t need any more short-term, make-work schemes. We need long-term, productive jobs. Sorry to harp on, but Jersey’s unemployment figure is more than twice that of Guernsey’s, although admittedly it’s still very low.

The Treasury Minister said in his Budget speech that the Council of Ministers wants to see the spirit of enterprise driving our economic recovery. Don’t we all. It won’t happen, however, unless government (big or small) provides the right environment. So it was good news to hear in the Budget that the Economic Development Minister is to publish and consult on a new Economic Growth Strategy in the first half of next year. So it looks like we’re going to get a new plan before most of us have discovered what the old plan was.

Let’s just hope that we can tell the difference by the amount of resources devoted to bringing the plan into effect although, once again, I fear this is wishful thinking.

As you can see I am trying desperately to be positive. Like most people, I want to move on from all the fuss and furore of recent months, and I know that the Island has a lot going for it. It could be the dawn of a bright new day for Jersey, but as the car bumper sticker says ‘you just watch some b….. mess it up’.

Peter Body is editor of Business Brief magazine