Sinn Fein (21.1%), Fine Gael (21%) and Fianna Fail (19.5%) are virtually neck-and-neck in terms of first preference votes in the Irish General Election, according to an exit poll.
The Ipsos B&A Exit Poll was commissioned by RTE, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin and results came after polls closed at 10pm.
It puts the two largest parties in the current coalition, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, on a combined 40.5%.
While the exit poll is indicative of the support base for the political parties, the final results will be determined by transfer votes – a key part of Ireland’s complex electoral system of proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PR-STV).
The inconclusive results mean that all eyes will now turn to the potential search for coalition partners.
Elsewhere, the exit poll showed: Social Democrats (5.8%), Labour (5%), Greens (4%), Aontu (3.6%), People Before Profit-Solidarity (3.1%), and Independent Ireland (2.2%). Independents and other candidates were on 14.6%.
There is a margin of error of 1.4%.
The results of the exit poll suggest the arithmetic to form a majority may prove tricky, with the country’s several smaller parties and many independents potentially jockeying for a place in government – possibly in a coalition made up of four parties.
The leaders of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have consistently ruled out entering into a future coalition with Sinn Fein, citing substantial differences on policy.
As such, Sinn Fein faces a much more challenging route to forming a government.
However, long-held and seemingly insurmountable political differences have eroded as recently as 2020 when the general election also delivered an inconclusive result.
It was in that instance that Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, two parties forged from opposing sides of Ireland’s Civil War of the 1920s, agreed to set aside almost a century of animosity and share power for the outgoing coalition – after similar pledges against forming coalitions had been made prior to the final results. The Greens joined the coalition as a junior partner.
In that election, Sinn Fein won the popular vote but a failure to run enough candidates meant it did not secure sufficient seats in the Dail to give it a realistic chance of forming a government.
This time around, party leader Mary Lou McDonald fielded many more candidates in a vow not to repeat past mistakes, as she urged voters to elect a government of change without Fine Gael or Fianna Fail.
