Cutting NHS waiting lists was one of Rishi Sunak’s priorities for last year, and figures released on Thursday show he is still some way from achieving this target.
While waiting lists are falling, they remain higher than they were when he made his promise – one of five that included halving inflation, growing the economy, cutting debt and “stopping the boats”.
By the end of last year, most of those priorities had still not been achieved, leaving work to be done in 2024.
– Halve inflation
The Prime Minister met his pledge to halve inflation in 2023.
Mr Sunak needed inflation to fall to below 5.4% in order to meet his target, and the final figures for last year showed this had been achieved, with inflation falling to 4% by December.
Nevertheless progress has not been linear, with inflation rising slightly from November to December before falling again at the start of 2024, reaching 3.4% in February.
– Grow the economy
Growth over 2023 was weak, with the UK falling into a recession in the second half of the year.
ONS estimates suggest that the economy grew by just 0.1% over the whole year, with the first three months of 2023 being the only quarter of the year that saw any growth.
In per capita terms, which have a greater bearing on living standards, the picture is even worse with the UK experiencing seven successive quarters of contraction.
– Reduce debt
The national debt rose over the course of 2023, and remains at levels not seen since the early 1960s.
Figures for December 2023 suggest the total national debt stood at 97.7% – higher than it was a year earlier when it stood at 95.8%.
Revisions to previous figures mean national debt climbed fairly steadily over the course of 2023, and underlying debt (excluding the Bank of England) has also increased, although not quite as rapidly.
But Mr Sunak has still claimed some success on this measure, with the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasting debt to fall between 2027/28 and 2028/29, meeting the Chancellor’s fiscal rule.
– Cut NHS waiting lists
NHS waiting lists remain higher than they were when the Prime Minister made his pledge to cut them, but have continued to fall from their peak.
The waiting list for NHS treatment reached an estimated 7.54 million in February, up from 7.21 million in January 2023 when Mr Sunak made his pledge to cut waiting lists.
Mr Sunak admitted towards the end of last year that he had failed to cut NHS waiting lists, despite pledging to do this at the start of 2023.
But the Prime Minister still claimed some success on Thursday with the publication of the latest data, which showed waiting lists had fallen for the fifth month in a row after reaching a peak of 7.77 million in September.
“A drop of almost 200,000 in the last five months shows what the NHS can do for patients.”
Thursday’s figures also showed a significant drop in the number of people waiting more than 18 months for treatment, which had risen in each of the previous six months.
However, some 36,000 people waiting for community treatment, which included some of the people waiting the longest, were not included in the figures.
– Stop the boats
The Prime Minister was forced to admit in December that there is no “firm date” for “stopping the boats”, despite making it one of his priorities for 2023.
A total of 29,437 people crossed the Channel in small boats in 2023 and, while this represents a reduction from 45,755 in 2022, the crossings are still a long way from ending.
They also appear to have started increasing again, with 5,517 people having made the crossing so far this year, compared to 4,899 in the same period in 2023.
Meanwhile, the Rwanda policy, which Mr Sunak believes will be a strong deterrent to further crossings, remains in doubt as legislation to overcome the Supreme Court’s objections is stuck between the Lords and Commons.
