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Jamie Mourant and David Le Cornu from Ravenscroft’s discretionary investment management team look at the postpresidential-race geopolitical landscape
By now, we should know who the 47th president of the United States is. Unfortunately, this article isn’t being written overnight, so rather than me guess who won (I would have guessed Trump), I thought I would look at the geopolitical environment post-election and where investment might be prudent going forward.
The incoming administration will face a complex and turbulent geopolitical environment. The days of widespread international co-operation, free trade and smooth global relations have waned. The United States is in competition with China over economic, technological and political dominance. The war in Ukraine persists and tensions in the Middle East are escalating, further complicating international affairs.
In such a fractured world economy, two key sectors stand out as offering significant investment opportunities: healthcare and technology.
Healthcare
Geopolitical tensions, conflicts and trade disruptions inevitably increase the need for healthcare. This extends not only to emergency medical services in conflict zones but also to broader healthcare infrastructure and pharmaceutical advancements in regions preparing for, or recovering from, conflict.
Wars create immediate and critical health needs, driving up demand for medical supplies and emergency services. Simultaneously, nations outside the conflict zones focus on building preventative healthcare systems and improving infrastructure to address potential future crises. The Russia-Ukraine war, for instance, has placed enormous pressure on medical supply chains, emphasising the need for better resilience in healthcare infrastructure.
Moreover, long-term demographic trends, particularly ageing populations in developed nations, continue to drive demand for healthcare services, from pharmaceuticals to home healthcare. This creates consistent growth potential in the healthcare sector.
Technology
Technology has become central to global economic and political power, providing the digital infrastructure that sustains economies during periods of conflict and disruption. Both governments and private industries are heavily investing in technology to safeguard national security, strengthen supply chains and maintain their competitive edge in the global market.
The US-China rivalry has further heightened the strategic importance of key technological assets, particularly semiconductors. Semiconductors are essential, not only for consumer electronics but also for critical military applications. Companies such as NVIDIA, Intel and TSMC play a pivotal role in ensuring technological sovereignty for the US and its allies, particularly as they reduce reliance on Chinese production.
Cyber warfare is an increasing threat in modern conflicts. The Russia-Ukraine war highlighted the importance of cybersecurity as both nations, and their allies, experienced cyber attacks targeting infrastructure, government systems and companies.
This has increased demand for cybersecurity companies which are critical to protecting both government and corporate networks. More recently, the deadly attack by Hezbollah against an army base deep inside Israeli territory using a drone which avoided Israeli air defences showed again the cleverness behind modern warfare.
Both the healthcare and technology sectors are positioned to thrive amid geopolitical instability. Whether through healthcare innovations that address immediate and long-term health challenges, or technology solutions that protect national security and digital infrastructure, these industries are essential in navigating the uncertainties of the global environment.
As governments, businesses and societies adapt to a more fragmented and volatile world, healthcare and technology will remain central to economic resilience and growth. For investors, these sectors offer both defensive qualities in the face of short-term conflict and significant growth potential for the future.
