In a presidential race that is too close to call, former British ambassador to the United States Lord Kim Darroch took to the stage at Rathbones’ latest speaker series event to share what the post-election future could look like. Meg Winton was in the audience.
Americans will be hitting the polling booths in less than two weeks’ time, tasked with deciding who should be president.
It is between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, the former a convicted felon with one presidential term to his name, the latter a former attorney general of California and the current Vice-President.
The latest race to the White House has been described as “extraordinary”, and “more consequential than most US elections”. Though it may be happening miles away, the result of this election is guaranteed to affect the rest of the world.
Lord Kim Darroch, former British ambassador to the United States, visited the Island to appear at the latest Rathbones speaker series event, which aims to spotlight individuals that attendees can learn from or find value in for their line of work.
The investment management business invited the former diplomat to share insights from his time working in the US, and give some predictions about what may be to come over the next few months.
The political and economic landscape of the world has changed significantly since Lord Darroch was last in Jersey over a decade ago.
He served as British ambassador to the US between January 2016 and December 2019 and before this, was the national security adviser and UK permanent representative to the European Union.
Lord Darroch saw three prime ministers – David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson – and navigated a Trump presidency during his time as ambassador alone.
With his experience in diplomacy and proximity to figures who have influenced politics, and arguably the world, in the past few years, Lord Darroch has an extensive insight into how the election could affect us all, and he calls this presidential race “unique” for a number of reasons.
“You have one of the candidates, a sitting president no less, drop out of the race after winning all the primaries, then giving the worst debate performance in history,” he explained. “Biden dropped out only four weeks before the convention; I don’t think anyone has ever left it as late as him.”
This resulted in Vice-President Harris becoming the Democrat front runner. If successful, she will be the first female, first Asian American, and second African American president in history. Her opponent, meanwhile, if successful, would become the second president in American history to win two non-consecutive presidential terms.
Lord Darroch said: “He’s also a convicted felon; it’s not unprecedented for a convicted felon to run for the American presidency but it is pretty rare.”
This will be Harris’s first shot at the White House’s top job. She has been endorsed by prominent Democratic figures, as well as some Republicans, and has generally been well-received.
“Kamala Harris’s story is classically American,” Lord Darroch said. “She’s the daughter of two immigrants, a father from Jamaica, mother from India. She trained as a lawyer and spent most of her career in California – a true west-coaster.”
He continued: “She rose to the top legal job in the state of California, attorney general. In person, she comes across as serious-minded, a bit reserved, very focused and driven. She drives her staff very hard as well.”
And there’s one issue on which he says Harris takes the lead. “Abortion rights,” Lord Darroch explained, “which more than half of American voters say is a major concern.”
The former diplomat explained what he thinks a Harris presidency might look like economically, geopolitically and environmentally.
“If Harris wins, I think she’ll put taxes up, particularly for large corporations,” he said.
“I predict that she’ll try to enshrine abortion rights into federal law, she’ll continue military support for Ukraine, keep pressure on Israel to de-escalate the conflicts in Gaza and southern Lebanon, and pledge support for international action on climate change.”
Crucially, the American people know what living in a Trump presidency is like but Lord Darroch posed a question: “It’s chaotic, exhausting and stressful. Do they really want to do that again?”
Abortion rights may be one of the top issues for Americans, but Lord Darroch said that there was something they consider more vital – the economy and inflation.
And one candidate has a significant lead in this area – Trump.
“In a really tight election, leads like this could make the difference,” Lord Darroch said, “which is why, in the eyes of many, Trump is the slight favourite.”
With Trump’s priorities lying with deporting ten million “illegal, undocumented migrants”, potentially pardoning himself and reducing taxes as he did in his first term, despite America’s national debt, Lord Darroch feels a Trump victory would be “much more disruptive”.
“Trump doesn’t believe in alliances or free trade,” the former diplomat said. “He’s a pure, mechanical mercantile.
“He’s both an isolationist and unilateralist, and I think some of his plans for his second term are profoundly disruptive and arguably dangerous.”
The two presidential candidates could not be more different from each other, yet the race is looking painstakingly close. Polls showed some “significant” movement for the Democrats after Biden stepped down, with Lord Darroch explaining: “Biden was consistently two points behind Trump, but Harris has been two and a half to three points ahead for several weeks now.
“But the election is not decided by the popular vote.”
Many predict that the outcome will be decided by the battleground states: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“Harris is ahead in four: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada,” Lord Darroch said. “Trump is ahead in three: Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.
“If these polls were spot on, Harris would win the election by 270 Electoral College votes to 268; it is that close. You might as well toss a coin.”
