A FORMER military strategist has renewed his calls for the government to increase its preparedness for major crises.
Brigadier Nigel Hall previously raised concerns in 2023 that Jersey has “chronic resilience vulnerabilities”, citing food and energy security as some of the Island’s most acute problems.
The claim was refuted by the then-Chief Minister Kristina Moore, who said Jersey has a “high level of preparedness” for being cut off from the UK and Europe should a geo-political crisis arise.
Now, as tensions in the Middle East escalate, the Brigadier is urging the government to think again.
Quoting Winston Churchill, Brigadier Hall warned that Jersey risks repeating past mistakes by failing to prepare for an increasingly unstable world: “In their unwisdom, carelessness, and good nature they allowed the wicked to rearm.”
He argued that resilience goes beyond emergency response, describing it as “long-term preparation to get upstream of events and prevent or mitigate crises”, and likened it to the Island’s historic investment in sea defences.
In an open letter to Chief Minister Lyndon Farnham, which was also sent to States Members and seen by the JEP, the former strategist cautioned that Jersey remained “far from resilient” to worst-case scenarios, particularly if assumptions about support from the UK and France no longer held.
Following the example of the recent competitiveness review of the finance sector which had led to the publication of the ‘Time to Win’ strategy, the Brigadier urged ministers to commission an urgent “McKinsey-level… stress-test” review of the Island’s preparedness, covering areas such as energy, food supply, cyber security, and critical infrastructure.
“Recent bland official assurances simply do not pass muster and ultimately mislead the public,” he said, adding that there was little evidence of meaningful progress or investment.
Brigadier Hall concluded by calling on States Members to “act decisively now” and ensure an expert-led review is completed before the next government takes office.
Brigadier Nigel Hall’s full letter
“In their unwisdom, carelessness, and good nature they allowed the wicked to rearm” – Winston Churchill’s Gathering Storm sums up Jersey’s lack of resilience in the face of a much more dangerous future...
Dear Chief Minister,
At a recent meeting to discuss resilience I quoted former Secretary General of NATO, Lord Robertson, saying that the “UK was not safe, it was under-insured, and under-prepared”. I said that these same words applied to Jersey as well, because it was far from resilient to some worst-case regional-level risks where the base assumption that UK and France would always be there to come to our aid was no longer valid.
Given the potential perils that we face, and near universal lack of understanding beyond normal emergency planning, my advice to you and to every States Member is to go the extra mile now to ensure the safety of the Island and instil confidence across the population. You should authorise a McKinsey-level external consultancy quick stress-test review of government resilience processes and preparedness, energy, food, cyber, harbour and shipping, fuel and other critical infrastructure worst-case preparedness.
Two months is plenty of time. Simply give island-wide resilience a dose of the most professional expert urgent review treatment available, as the Minister for External Relations just given the finance sector.
Jersey is far from alone in suffering a chronic lack of trust and confidence in government. Following the multiple health services crisis that involved many years of denial, lack of transparency, and refusal to open up to external review, the poor handling of Covid, and the failure after four years to implement the top (modern crisis/civil contingencies law) and other Covid Inquiry recommendations, there will be thousands of islanders who will agree with me that resilience needs this urgent best-available independent review and advice. Recent bland official assurances simply do not pass muster and ultimately mislead the public.
The lack of evidence or budget lines showing any substantive action delivered reinforce my concern that the Island is not as safe and prepared as it should be. Months of preparation have been lost.
No one expected Covid despite a pandemic being top of the risk register. Jersey paid a high price for being poorly prepared and late into action. It rejected the offer of an expert outside team to give critical friend advice at a pivotal moment, saying that it was confident that it was not required. There is a disturbing déjà-vu about government effort and States Assembly disinterest in resilience. My decades of relevant experience leads me to urge you and every States Assembly member to act decisively now.
These independent stress tests can be undertaken and be ready for the incoming government, saving many months of further wasted time.
Yours sincerely,
Nigel Hall
