By Carl Parslow
A SMALL land mass 9 miles by 5 miles, of course, sits at the heart of the dilemma.
It started, no doubt, as so many modern follies do, with a spreadsheet. On it, a tidy little formula: fewer babies born in Jersey therefore more migrant workers equals higher GDP.
Job done. Somewhere in Cyril Le Marquand House, someone is nodding along. But out in the real Jersey, do the sums add up?
The strategy, though no one dares call it that out loud, is clear: plug the collapsing birth rate by importing people. It is no doubt being sold as economic prudence, but mandated by the Jersey electorate, not so sure.
Let’s break it down. GDP, that big, shiny number politicians love, is simply the total value of what Jersey produces. But it’s not about you. If you want to know how Islanders are actually doing, look at GDP per capita. That’s the real metric: are people better off, or are we just running harder on the hamster wheel?
Now the big one: only 716 babies were born here in 2024, the lowest since the Occupation.
Meanwhile, housing costs are sky-high, and young Jersey people are giving up on ever owning a home. The government’s apparent response? Import more people. Keep the cafés open. Sell a few more coffees. That’s the plan?
To be clear, migration isn’t the villain. Far from it. Jersey has long welcomed those who come to work hard, raise families, and contribute. But this isn’t about who, it is about how many and the skill sets they bring to our economy.
In 2018, we added 1,200 people to the population. 1,100 were from outside the Island.
These numbers haven’t slowed (in large part due to such numbers being fuelled by demand from the Island’s largest employer). The government’s so-called strategy is piling pressure on housing, roads, GPs, schools, and pretending it will all work out. Will it?
Let’s talk housing. The market’s already in crisis. A quarter of households spend over 30% of their income just to keep a roof overhead. That’s not “tight”, that’s survival mode.
Islanders are leaving because they can’t afford to stay. So, what is the genius move? Bring in more people. Let them join the fight for a home in an already stretched housing supply.
Meanwhile, the broader economy is anything but booming. The Fiscal Policy Panel recently warned of “a more subdued economic environment”, urging firms to brace for weaker demand and rising uncertainty. Translation: the outlook’s not brilliant. Growth is slowing.
Inflation remains stubborn. Business confidence is flat-lining. Yet government still believes importing more workers is the silver bullet.
Even the Control of Housing and Work (Jersey) Law 2012, once the gatekeeper for sensible population growth, is being quietly hollowed out. More exemptions. Looser definitions.
What was once a front door policy is starting to look like a side gate flapping in the wind.
This is the crux of it: Jersey is a small island with big ambitions but limited space. The infrastructure is creaking. Roads are clogged and full of potholes. GP surgeries are overwhelmed. Yet it would appear the government believes we can grow our way out of the mess by cramming more people in.
The problem is that Jersey’s infrastructure isn’t infinitely scalable. We are an island 9 miles by 5 miles.
Even the “experts” admit it: Jersey’s productivity is “stubbornly low”.” Translation? We are working harder, not smarter. Adding more people won’t solve that. It risks locking Jersey into a lower-wage, lower-value loop, chasing growth but never catching prosperity.
Don’t be fooled by that shiny GDP number. More people mean more output, sure. But not more money in your pocket. In fact, often the opposite. More lower-wage workers in a high-cost island arguably drives living standards down, not up.
Even the UK has started to twig. Labour leader and the United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer recently admitted the “more people equal more growth” theory has been tested, and flopped. If the United Kingdom can’t make it work, how exactly is Jersey supposed to?
Then there’s the social fabric. Jersey isn’t a faceless metropolis. It is a tight-knit community. You mess with the balance too much, and you get friction, not harmony. This isn’t about where people come from, it’s about whether the system can support them. Can it?
And let’s not forget the green contradiction. Jersey has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2050. But more people still mean more cars, more buildings on green zone land, more everything. Will we end up wrecking the Island in the name of the economy?
Even official documents are beginning to trip over themselves. Ministers talk up “high-skilled migration” but we’re seeing more short-term, low-paid roles. A government report once warned: “Low-wage immigration should be kept to a minimum”, and another stated “[we should] progressively reduce Jersey’s reliance on net inward migration”. What happened to that?
Still, the answer from Jersey government appears to be: more people.
Of course, migration has its place. Jersey has always benefited from the energy, ideas and labour of those who come to make it home. But this isn’t a strategy. It’s a headcount. It’s quantity over quality. And a growing population without matching housing, infrastructure, or services? That is not a plan, it is a burnout recipe, for locals and newcomers alike.
So, what’s the alternative? Here is a “novel” suggestion: if Jersey’s birth rate has reached its lowest point since 1955, perhaps it is time to commission a dedicated, in-depth report to understand why.
While the Common Population Policy Annual Report and Public Health Intelligence briefings acknowledge the decline, with the fertility rate now just 1.29 and births projected to drop below 650 this year, they stop short of addressing the root causes in any real depth.
Without a serious investigation, policy remains reactive, not strategic.
Perhaps the spreadsheet should not be saying “import more people”, perhaps it should instead say: “Make it feasible to raise a family here.” We could start with meaningful tax relief for parents.
We need to invest in local families. Not by importing quick fixes but by nurturing the people already here.
While maintaining a healthy economy is of course important, it’s not all about GDP. We must not forget that Jersey should remain a place where its people want to stay, raise children and grow old. A place with a culture worth keeping. A community with a memory.
A future with roots.
Born and educated in the Island, Carl Parslow is an experienced Jersey Advocate and notary public with over 25 years’ experience. He heads up Parslows LLP business legal services department, advising corporates and individuals on a range of issues with a particular emphasis on acting for Jersey owner-managed businesses. Outside of work, he enjoys rugby and cycling with Lasardines.
