Next year is set to be among the world’s hottest years, after 2024 breaks the 1.5C warming threshold for the first time, the Met Office said.
The Met Office outlook for 2025 suggests it is likely to be one of the three warmest years on record, with global average temperatures around 1.4C above pre-industrial levels, just behind 2024 and 2023.
It means 2024 will beat the previous record of 1.45C set the year before in 2023.
But although the Pacific is shifting to a cooler La Nina phase, 2025 is still expected to see average global temperatures well above anything seen before 2023.
Next year is forecast to be between 1.29C and 1.53C above pre-industrial averages, with a central estimate of 1.41C, the Met Office said.
“Years, such as 2025, which aren’t dominated by the warming influence of El Nino, should be cooler.
“2016 was an El Nino year and at the time it was the warmest year on record for global temperature.
“In comparison to our forecast for 2025 though, 2016 is now looking decidedly cool.”
The Met Office flagged the chance that 2024 would see average global temperatures exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in its annual forecast late last year.
The Met Office’s Dr Nick Dunstone, who led production of the forecast, said: “A year ago our forecast for 2024 highlighted the first chance of exceeding 1.5C.
“Although this appears to have happened, it’s important to recognise that a temporary exceedance of 1.5C doesn’t mean a breach of the Paris Agreement.”
“But the first year above 1.5C is certainly a sobering milestone in climate history,” he said.
The Met Office said it used a 20-year average to assess current global warming levels, including future climate projections and recent observations, which currently gave a long-term average of 1.3C above the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900.
