The event was led by guest speaker Scott Livermore, managing director of International Macroeconomic Forecasting at Oxford Economics and senior economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club. Key themes in the Winter Forecast report and their relevance to the Channel Islands were highlighted.
‘After a steadying in momentum during the last quarter of 2014, there seems to be cause for optimism in both the UK and Jersey economy, with the Island’s GDP growth expected to be on the up,’ said Andrew Dann, EY’s Channel Islands managing partner.
Mr Livermore outlined the recent slump in global oil prices – triggered by the slowdown in China and emerging markets more generally as well as increased supply from the United States’ exploitation of shale oil and recovering oil production in countries like Libya and Iraq – as a major factor behind this positive outlook.
He explained how the collapse of the oil market meant a low level of CPI inflation was predicted for 2015, with inflation actually negative for several months in the first half of 2015, accompanied by low unemployment levels and increased wages. A boost in housing incomes would consequentially lead to more consumer spending.
The fall in the oil price will also improve the outlook in a number of key emerging markets and the United States is set to see stronger growth. These factors are also predicted to have positive repercussions on the UK economy.
‘The big story in the second half of last year was falling oil prices and we expect those low prices to remain into 2016, which will provide a significant boost to UK households,’ said Mr Livermore. ‘The benefits this will bring to the UK economy will undoubtedly be mirrored to some degree in the Channel Islands. There is good reason to believe that they will see economic growth, with retail business picking up and potentially a boost to tourism.’.
He did, however, caution that contingency plans should be in place for businesses and investors relating to certain downside risks: the price of oil rising again; Greece exiting the eurozone; and the UK’s general election and position in the European Union. ‘Despite some risks, the outlook appears to be good. This is an opportunity for Channel Island businesses to thrive, particularly customer-facing ones, and we would suggest that firms consider their own forecasting assumptions against these positive trends,’ said Mr Dann.
‘There is every chance that businesses can afford to be more ambitious than they have been in recent years. At EY in the Channel Islands, we have revised our growth plan, increasing trainee numbers from 22 in 2014 to 30 in 2015.’
CORPORATE services provider Crestbridge has appointed Andy Williams as a director in its real estate team in Jersey, in response to growing demand for specialist real estate administration services throughout the jurisdiction.
With over 17 years of experience in the provision of offshore administration services, nine of which relate exclusively to property, Mr Williams joins Crestbridge having most recently been head of a private equity real estate office in the Island. Before that, he was an associate director in the real estate team of a global offshore legal and fiduciary services provider with its headquarters
in Jersey, where he spent over eight years.
He is an Associate of the Chartered Institute of Secretaries and Administrators.
Working with a wide range of institutional investors, including large property and insurance companies and pension funds, the real estate team at Crestbridge specialises in providing high-quality administration services to real estate holding structures.
In recent months, it has seen a rise in the number of large real estate funds it administers, such as the Kennedy Wilson European Real Estate Fund, which is the largest listing of a real estate fund on the London Stock Exchange since the financial downturn.
THE Equiom Group has successfully completed its acquisition of AFP Group, an independent Hong Kong-based fiduciary and tax services provider employing over 30 staff.
The move sees the AFP Group’s chief executive officer Roddy Sage, group managing director Debby Davidson and their experienced team joining the Equiom Group.
Commenting on this latest acquisition, Equiom Group managing director Sheila Dean said that market entry into the Far East had been core to the group’s growth strategy for some time.
‘The team at AFP Group have an established and diverse client portfolio and work closely with corporates, private individuals and their advisers offering a range of fiduciary, tax and specialist services,’ she added. ‘It is a natural fit for the Equiom Group.
‘Roddy, Debby and their team have worked closely with us to finalise the deal which will in turn allow AFP Group to offer its clients a range of enhanced services fully supported by our international team of specialists currently based in Jersey, the Isle of Man and Malta.’
AFP Group CEO, Roddy Sage said that the acquisition was great news for all concerned. ‘In particular our clients and large base of intermediaries will now benefit from the knowledge and experience of Equiom’s team of professionals, he said. ‘Additionally our staff will benefit from working for an international organisation and the personal opportunities for growth and development the deal brings.
‘Sheila and her team can look forward to building on the relationship we have developed through this process and build on their success to ensure that the group’s expansion into the Far East continues – they have my wholehearted support.’
THE iPhone 6, which last week helped Apple to post the the biggest quarterly profit figure ever achieved by a public company, has also helped boost sales for an Island firm.
Apple sold 74.5 million iPhones during the three months to 27 December, contributing to Apple’s record quarterly profit figure of $18 billion.
Peter Zunino, the head of marketing at Airtel-Vodafone, said that it was ‘amazing’ to consider the effect that one make of phone can have on the overall market. ‘The launch of the iPhone 6, combined with us offering it to the market at the most competitive prices, significantly contributed to a buoyant Christmas trading period for us,’ added Mr Zunino. ‘We sold over three times as many iPhone 6 models during that period as the nearest other branded handset.’
RAVENSCROFT has appointed a new stockbroker and portfolio manager as the company looks to build on recent growth.
Linda Power has joined the Jersey team of the only independent stockbroking and investment management firm in the Channel Islands.
‘This is an exciting role at a very exciting company. Ravenscroft has some unique attributes that allow it to be innovative and choose creative solutions for their clients. I want to use my experience to help grow the Jersey business, working closely with the rest of the team to build up the client base, and identify ways that enable Ravenscroft to achieve its ambition of becoming the leading Channel Islands-based investment services firm,’ she said.
Ms Power has 16 years’ experience in financial markets working in various roles, including treasury and global foreign exchange.
She has also worked at the Jersey International Business School lecturing on its degree programmes and professional investment qualifications.
Ms Power was educated in Ireland and holds a BA in financial services and various professional qualifications.
Ravenscroft opened its Jersey office in 2008. It now employs nearly 50 people in Jersey and Guernsey and has nearly £1.5bn of assets under administration for private, institutional and intermediary clients.
